Week 4 NFL picks

Two good weeks in a row. That's a scary thing, but of course I wasn't smart enough to place my money on these prognostications. We'll try it again, and if we have another 10-plus win week, it's about time to contact my favorite bookie.

Here we go:

(16 points) DENVER minus-8.5 over KANSAS CITY
--> Even though this is my top pick, it's no gimme. Like I said in Week 2, it's a scary proposition to pick a road favorite in a division game, especially giving this many points. But the Chiefs are awful and have no passing game, where the Broncos are most vulnerable.
Last week: Cowboys (-2.5) 27, Packers 16 (correct pick)

(15 points) TENNESSEE minus-3.5 over MINNESOTA
--> It is incredulous that it took this long for Brad Childress to figure out Tarvaris Jackson isn't good enough to play quarterback in the NFL. And while Adrian Peterson is just waiting to give that big boost to the Vikes, it's somehow a surprise to everyone that the longest-tenured coach in the league, Jeff Fisher, once again has a good team.
Last week: Dolphins 38, Patriots (-12.5) 13 (incorrect pick, bastard Patsies cost me in the Suicide Pool)

(14 points) GREEN BAY minus-1.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> The Packers losing big to Dallas doesn't say they aren't a good team; rather it says they aren't an elite team. Meanwhile, the Bucs have a long way to go to impress me, and a team with quarterback problems shouldn't be able to beat one as well-rounded as the Pack.
Last week: Jaguars 23, Colts (-5.5) 21 (incorrect pick, like I promised, I'm officially off Colts bandwagon. Grrrrr.)

(13 points) BALTIMORE plus-7.5 over PITTSBURGH
--> Speaking of quarterback problems, it's starting to look like there's more wrong with Big Ben than the Steelers are letting on. Besides, for some reason Rashard Mendenhall (who's starting in place of Willie Parker) decided to give the Ravens some bulletin-board material. Smart move, rook.
Last week: Vikings 20, Panthers (+3.5) 13 (incorrect pick, Carolina choke choke cough cough)

(12 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-3.5 over CHICAGO
--> I'm not sure what my deal is with picking road favs, but it seems to be working. Besides, the Bears aren't all that great at home, and I am still sticking with my statement that the Eagles are the second-best team in the NFC.
Last week: Bucs (+2.5) 27, Bears 24, OT (correct pick, luckee luckee)

(11 points) CAROLINA minus-6.5 over ATLANTA
--> Obviously, the Falcons can beat up on the bad teams. That's probably going to be the only teams they can beat up on. Not that the Panthers have been world-beaters, but they're back at home and have a stout defense that should put a clamp on Matt Ryan and Michael Turner.
Last week: Giants 26, Bengals (+12.5) 23, OT (correct pick, I told you to never let the Giants lay double-digit points)

(10 points) BUFFALO minus-8.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> I must have been high last week to think the Rams could cover a spread. So what if they're at home this week? Can't wait to see what the man-geniuses Haslett and Venturi have in store for the upstart Bills.
Last week: Chargers (-8.5) 48, Jets 29 (correct pick, maybe the Bretts are worse that I thought)

(9 points) JACKSONVILLE minus-7.5 over HOUSTON
--> Another bandwagon I have leaped off is the Texans. They have no running game, and Matt Schaub isn't surprising anyone. The Jags showed real moxie last week, and I think I originally didn't give them enough credit. Well, that's changed now.
Last week: 49ers (-3.5) 31, Lions 13 (correct pick, can't wait til Thanksgiving to watch a full Lions game ... NOT)

(8 points) DALLAS minus-11.5 over WASHINGTON
--> Until somebody stops this locomotive, you just can't bet against the Cowboys. That includes here against a much-improved Redskins team.
Last week: Eagles (-3.5) 15, Steelers 6 (correct pick)

(7 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> I hate picking the Saints this high (so that tells you what I think about the remainder of my picks), but my gut is usually right about these guys. I think they're going to start quick and hold Frank Gore down just enough to win by a touchdown or maybe 10.
Last week: Ravens (-2.5) 28, Browns 10 (correct pick)

(6 points) OAKLAND plus-7.5 over SAN DIEGO
--> The anger is out of the Chargers system, and while I think they're one of the top three teams in the AFC, something just ain't right with LT. And if they don't have him at full strength, it's going to be tough to rout anyone. Even Oakland.
Last week: Redskins (-2.5) 24, Cardinals 17 (correct pick)

(5 points) CINCINNATI minus-3.5 over CLEVELAND
--> The hoax is over; the Browns really are bad. Meanwhile, the Bengals are ready to resume their perch among the middle of mediocrity.
Last week: Titans 31, Texans (+4.5) 12 (incorrect pick, I need to take my own advice about the Titans)

(4 points) ARIZONA plus-2.5 over NY JETS
--> Seriously, why do oddsmakers keep putting faith in the Jets? Because of a 38-year-old quarterback? They need a lot more to resurrect this group than Favre. Meanwhile, I still say the Cardinals are being overlooked.
Last week: Falcons (-3.5) 38, Chiefs 14 (correct pick)

Other picks last week: Bills 24, Raiders (+8.5) 23 (correct, 3 pts); Seahawks 37, Rams (+9.5) 13 (incorrect, 2 pts, yes I really picked St. Louis); Broncos 34, Saints (+5.5) 32 (correct, 1 pt).

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 3: 11-5, 87 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 22-9 (.710), 192 points (96 per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: Me 192, LR 155, JRap 153, JLE 144, Gene Pool 141, PVW 136, Lopes 135, MLC 129, WWB 127, KVP 112, DJW 74