Week 9 NFL picks

Hold your nose boys and girls. No, I'm not talking about Tuesday's election. This is something much worse. Rather, it's that time of the week when I tell everyone who not to pick. And if you picked against me the past two weeks, you made quite a bit of cash to take the kiddies out for a steak -- every night for the past 10 days.

After a 22-9 start, I have fallen below .500 for the season for the first time in '08. My numbers are so low, I don't think I could beat out Bob Barr on Tuesday. But we're determined to make this thing right. So, I guess what I am saying is, bet against me at your own risk. I changed up some of my strategies and think I'm ready for a big week.

We'll see, ha ha.

Here we go ...

(16 points) ATLANTA minus-2.5 over OAKLAND
--> Here's the first change of order. I got off the Raiders bandwagon, and am jumping on the Dirty Birds for at least a week. Even though they struggled last week, new coach Mike Smith has impressed the hell out of me. Matt Ryan looks for real, and we know Michael Turner is. Could be a big day for both of them, and I'm looking for a blowout.
Last week: Panthers (-4.5) 27, Cardinals 23 (This was the beginning of the big flop -- and I;m not talking about poker)

(15 points) ARIZONA minus-2.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> The Real Men of Genius have been cracked. The Cardinals hung tough in Carolina last week. That all means something to me. If the Rams find a way to win this one, it means they found a way to stop Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. No matter how wrong I have been, I can't see that happening.
Last week: Redskins (-7.5) 25, Lions 17 (Whew. Barely. It could've been a 2-12 week.)

(14 points) PITTSBURGH plus-2.5 over WASHINGTON
--> Speaking of getting exposed, the Redskins aren't as good as advertised in road wins at Dallas and Philly. The Steelers have been consistent, and with Willie Parker coming back, expect the unexpected from them. I just think Pittsburgh is way too physical for the Skins, although it should be a great game. Look for the Steelers to win straight up in a close one.
Last week: Jets (-12.5) 28, Chiefs 24 (How in the hell did Tyler Thigpen almost pull this one out straight up?)

(13 points) CLEVELAND minus-1.5 over BALTIMORE
--> My first pick of a home team this week -- and only one of four. The Browns have played well enough since beating the Giants to merit being a bigger favorite here. The Ravens beat the Raiders. Big deal. Looking for a low-scoring game with the Browns winning by a late Jamal Lewis touchdown.
Last week: Browns 23, Jaguars (-6.5) 17 (What a weird season)

(12 points) HOUSTON plus-4.5 over MINNESOTA
--> One of the few things I got right in the past couple of weeks is that I think the Texans are underrated. Look for their defense to do what the Saints did and even better. Shove eight men in the box and let Gussy beat you. Meanwhile, give the Vikings porous defense a large does of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson. Love the Texans, straight up here.
Last week: Seahawks 34, 49ers (-4.5) 13 (At least when I'm wrong, I'm usually really wrong)

(11 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-6.5 over SEATTLE
--> If there's one thing the Eagles can do well, they're able to beat a bad team. And usually handily. After a week in which Holmgren's boys gave Grunge City some hope against the lowly Niners, it's back to reality. Donovan McNabb is not JT O'Sullivan, and the Eagles defense ... well, you get the picture. This one could get ugly.
Last week: Titans 31, Colts (+3.5) 21 (Maybe when Tennessee is 15-0 I'll believe they're for real)

(10 points) GREEN BAY plus-5.5 over TENNESSEE
--> Like I said, I just can't seem to pull the trigger on the Titans. So what if their defense is playing really well? I can't believe Kerry Collins is stringing them along. It will be interesting to see what happens to them if they trail heading into the fourth quarter. Also, Aaron Rodgers got a contract extension this week, so he'll have something to prove. At the minimum, I think it'll be close, but I like the Pack straight up.
Last week: Dolphins 25, Bills (-1.5) 17 (Will the real Dolphins show up please?)

(9 points) JACKSONVILLE minus-8.5 over CINCINNATI
--> The scary thing about this one is that the Jags haven't won by more than a touchdown all season. But the more important piece of this puzzle is that they have had maybe the toughest schedule in the league so far. There has not been a gimme, and Del Rio was pissed after falling at home to the Brownies last week. Look for a good team to respond in a big way.
Last week: Saints 37, Chargers (-2.5) 32 (What in the hell was that? And do it again please.)

(8 points) KANSAS CITY plus-8.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> I have to be honest, this one's on a gut feeling. Last week could have been just a fluke, but I look for the Arrowheads to play a little better the rest of the way. And besides, NFC South teams have been anything but impressive on the road, and the Bucs are no different. They're 1-3 straight up away from Raymond James Stadium.
Last week: Giants 21, Steelers (-2.5) 14 (Wish we had John Carney five years ago ... OK, now)

(7 points) DALLAS plus-8.5 over NY GIANTS
--> Just once have the defending champs rolled as a big favorite -- against lowly Seattle. The Cowboys certainly have their issues, but if they want to stay in the running for the NFC East -- and if Wade Phillips wants to keep a secure hold on his job -- the Starheads will have to put up a big fight. I think they're too good not to do at least that.
Last week: Patriots (-7.5) 23, Rams 16 (Grrr, I hate those half-point losses)

(6 points) NY JETS plus-5.5 over BUFFALO
--> Usually when I pick against the Bills, it comes back to haunt me. But I just can't pick them to give up that many points as bad as they've played lately. I don't think there will be a ton of points scored in this one, and in a close game, I like the Men of Favre.
Last week: Eagles 27, Falcons (+8.5) 14 (The Birds just can't overcome a good defense. Lesson learned.)

(5 points) DENVER minus-3.5 over MIAMI
--> Obviously, the oddsmakers have given the Dolphins respect. It shows, too, what they think of the back-down-to-Earth Broncos. This spread means Miami would be almost a field-goal favorite at home. I can't honestly believe that these two teams are that close. But you can see how much faith I have in this one.
Last week: Texans (-9.5) 35, Bengals 6 (Houston moving up my confidence chart)

(4 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-5.5 over NEW ENGLAND
--> I was all set to jump off the Colts bandwagon -- which I have stated for about a month now -- but then here comes the Patsies. A completely healed Peyton has been waiting for a chance to destroy his nemesis. And here, he gets it, as it's now or never. Don't bet da house, though.
Last week: Cowboys (-2.5) 13, Bucs 9 (Shoulda been much easier)

(3 points) DETROIT plus-12.5 over CHICAGO
--> The Lions have improved, and I don't see them being routed by their arch-rival. Also, one of my cardinal rules is that I hate giving up more than 10 points to any NFL team, no matter how bad they are. And despite the 0-fer so far, I just don't think Deeeetroit is that horrendous.
Last week: Ravens 29, Raiders (+6.5) 10 (I'm so glad I don't have to talk about last week anymore)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 8: Awful. Just awful. Oh, you want actual numbers. (Reluctant) 24 points, 3-11
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 46-54 (.460), 400 points (57 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: MLC 537, JLE 532, Lopes 464, LR 447, WWB 439, PVW 422, Gene Pool 411, JRap (won week, 70 points) 411, KVP 403, Me 400, DJW 392

Week 8 NFL picks

Can we just skip the idle chit-chat about just how bad last week was? A couple of things I will say real quick, though. First, there is no truth to the rumor that I let my dog, Reggie Bush, make my picks last week. Second, there is truth to the rumor that I wish I let my dog, Reggie Bush, make my picks last week.

Let's just move on ...

(16 points) CAROLINA minus-4.5 over ARIZONA
--> The entire NFC South has proved to be beasts at home. With their bye coming next week and then two easy ones, the Panthers should let loose with this one. Also, there's no one to overlook. The Cardinals have been up and down, but they have yet to face a defense like this one this season.
Last week: Rams 34, Cowboys (-6.5) 14 (The bookies were laughing, so was anyone who read this dumb blog last week)

(15 points) WASHINGTON minus-7.5 over DETROIT
--> The Redskins have struggled against bad teams the past two weeks, losing both ATS and straight up against the Rams two weeks ago. If they want to be considered a legitimate contender, they'll have to show bettors (more to prove to themselves) something here. The Lions have played better since firing Matt Millen, but that's wearing off on this really bad, possibly 0-and-16-in-their-future team. Expect a big day from Jason Campbell and Santana Moss against a porous secondary.
Last week: Bills 23, Chargers (-.5) 14 (That's what I get for picking against my preseason surprise)

(14 points) NY JETS minus-12.5 over KANSAS CITY
--> What do you do after an awful week of prognosticating? Take the safe route and go with a bunch of favorites. That's a lot of points to give up against any NFL team, but I like fair-to-good teams at home after an upset loss on the road. Especially against the in-figthing Chiefs.
Last week: Panthers 30, Saints (+3.5) 7 (Note to self: Don't pick against NFC South home teams in a division game ever again this season. Especially when the Saints are involved.)

(13 points) JACKSONVILLE minus-6.5 over CLEVELAND
--> In sticking with the favorites theme ... The Browns defense has played over their heads the past two weeks, including last week when their offense was awful. The Dawg Pound is beginning to call for Brady Quinn, and they might get their wish with one more bad performance from Derek Anderson. Meanwhile, time to turn it on for what could be the AFC South's best team when all is said is done. (Yes, I know Tennessee is still undefeated. See below.)
Last week: Titans 34, Chiefs (+7.5) 10 (I'm not sure why I'm not sold on the Titans)

(12 points) SAN FRANCISCO minus-4.5 over SEATTLE
--> Without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are bad. Real bad. Hell, even with him they're not all that good. Look for the Niners to be fired up in Mike Singletary's first game as coach. One thing for sure is that they will be intense.
Last week: Ravens 27, Dolphins (-2.5) 13 (I kinew better than to let Miami give points)

(11 points) INDIANAPOLIS plus-3.5 over TENNESSEE
--> Here I go going against another one of my rules (don't bet against a team with a streak of three or more). And another thing, this is really the last week I am on the Colts bandwagon if they don't show me something here. Either Peyton comes alive here, or this team truly is in trouble.
Last week: Steelers 33, Bengals (+9.5) 10 (Wow, I wasn't even close on most of these)

(10 points) BUFFALO minus-1.5 over MIAMI
--> Breaking another rule in consecutive picks (don't take road-division favorite). I wasn't about to pick against the Bills in consecutive weeks. Especially not here, where the Dolphins looked like the real Dolphins last week. I would suspect, though, that this one will be low scoring. Very low scoring.
Last week: Patriots 41, Broncos (+3.5) 7 (In fact, I think this was my worst week of picking EVER)

(9 points) SAN DIEGO minus-2.5 over NEW ORLEANS
--> The Saints are days away from unraveling at the seams, it would appear. Want some more bad signs for Brees and the Boys? They have been bad on the road, and THIS IS a road game, no matter what the NFL says. The Chargers, meanwhile, haven't lost often the past three seasons against teams with losing records.
Last week: Giants 29, 49ers (10.5) 17 (It's pretty sad when you're happy about the ones you almost got right)

(8 points) PITTSBURGH minus-2.5 over NY GIANTS
--> This could be one of the most physical games of the season so far. The offensive front of the Steelers has come alive after a dreadful start. Expect that to come in big, as I look for Big Ben to throw a little more than he has been, especially short passes to Miller and Ward. The Giants, meanwhile, still haven't proved that they are the NFC's dominant team.
Last week: Bears 48 (-3.5), Vikings 41 (Hooray, pop the champagne)

(7 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-7.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> In this weird season, logic says you should pick against the Patriots after they looked so good last week. But there's no way the Real Men of Genius keep this up, especially with Belicheat on the other side. That just doesn't seem fair.
Last week: Redskins (-7.5) 14, Browns 11 (I'm starting to think Washington played over their heads in those two big road wins. Also think Dallas and Philly just weren't that good.)

(6 points) ATLANTA plus-8.5 over PHILADELPHIA
--> Don't understand the spread here. The Falcons are a little lucky to be 4-2, but nonetheless, the Eagles have been anything but impressive. While I would be surprised if Atlanta pulls off another one, Mike Smith seems to have his team well-prepared every week, and I would be surprised if they get blown out.
Last week: Packers 34, Colts (+.5) 14 (Can you say over the hill? It's close.)

(5 points) HOUSTON minus-9.5 over CINCINNATI
--> I am going back to my original assessment that the Texans are a good football team, especially defensively. I can almost forget how much a hurricane can affect the play of a decent squad. I can't forget, though, how many troubles the Bengals have had and just how close a good coach is to being fired.
Last week: Buccaneers (-10.5) 20, Seahawks 10 (Meaningless late scores should count LOL)

(4 points) DALLAS minus-2.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> This pick goes against all of my better judgment, but I simply cannot believe the Cowpokes are poor, make that porous. Meanwhile, the Bucs have done most of their damage at home. It's sort of sick, but Wade Phillips' job really is at stake with the quick-trigger Jerry Jones watching. Look for a big rebound with a veteran under center and a beast named Marion Barber carrying the load.
Last week: Raiders (+3.5) 16, Jets 13 (This was really the only good pick I had last week)

(3 points) OAKLAND minus-6.5 over BALTIMORE
--> Another one that doesn't make any sense, but I thought I made sense last week. Oh well, it seems as if the Raiders are rejuvenated with Cable calling the shots. Sure, it won't last, but I give it more than a week.
Last week: Texans 28, Lions (+8.5) 21 (Yay, who cares?)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 7: 15 points, 3-11
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 43-43 (.500), 376 points (63 points per week)

TP sports pool standings: JLE (won week, 95) 477, MLC 477, Lopes 405, LR 395, WWB 391, PVW 385, Me 376, Gene Pool 367, KVP 337, JRap 335, DJW 330

NFL Week 7 picks

Good news for me last week was that I picked nine games right. Bad news was that most of them were the lower-point games. Funny thing is I'm not quite sure why I didn't move my lower picks up. I loved the underdogs at the bottom: St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland. Can't let them damned Tampa Bay Rays fans stay too far ahead of me. I think I have a good batch this week, and we're ready to move back up near the top.

Here we go:

(16 points) DALLAS minus-6.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> Romo? No Romo? That is the question. The answer is that it doesn't matter. If the Cowboys are to remain an elite team, they need to not just win, but win big. Certainly by more than a touchdown over the NFC's second-worst team. Let's see what Jim Haslett, new defensive coordinator Rick Venturi and the rest of the Real Men of Genius have in store for Marion Barber and T.O.
Last week: Falcons 22, Bears (-2.5) 20 (Would've lost anyway, but how do you let that happen?)

(15 points) SAN DIEGO plus-.5 over BUFFALO
--> Last week's blowout was no fluke for the Chargers, while neither was the Bills big loss two weeks ago at Arizona. San Diego is set to go on a roll (bad news for Saints fans), and lay claim to being one of the AFC's best. With the debacle of the first two weeks behind them, if they're gonna do that, they need to start by beating the mediocre on the road.
Last week: Texans (-2.5) 29, Dolphins 28 (Can a brother get a damned 2-point conversion?)

(14 points) NEW ORLEANS plus-3.5 over CAROLINA
--> It's a very similar situation as last week for the Saints. Although it's not quite as desperate, they're almost in a must-win again. This ridiculous road trip doesn't get easier until after the bye week, and they can't afford to go into it with a sub. 500 record. The run defense will have to be as stellar as they've been the past two weeks, while plenty is on Drew Brees' shoulders with Reggie Bush knicked up. That's a good thing.
Last week: Cardinals 30, Cowboys (-5.5) 27, OT (This parity crap is for the birds)

(13 points) KANSAS CITY plus-7.5 over TENNESSEE
--> One of those hunches (I usually get these right) that the Chiefs are fighting mad and have had a good week of practice. So what if the Titans are 5-0? Who have they beat? I'm telling you it's a facade, and look for the Chiefs to be more relaxed knowing the Larry Johnson situation ahead of time. It wouldn't surprise me at all if KC won straight up.
Last week: Packers (+2.5) 27, Seahawks 17 (Don't think the Seabags will be giving too many teams points the rest of the year)

(12 points) MIAMI minus-2.5 over BALTIMORE
--> I don't remember the last time the Dolphins were favored over anyone -- anywhere. But there's a reason. This team now has earned my respect with their above-average defense and innovating play-calling. Meanwhile, the Ravens' bubble sort of burst last week in a crushing rout at the hands of the aging Colts. If Miami has something to prove, here's their chance.
Last week: Eagles 40, 49ers (+4.5) 26 (choke, choke)

(11 points) CINCINNATI plus-9.5 over PITTSBURGH
--> No one denies the Bungles are a bad football team, but the Steelers are still a little banged up, even on a week coming off their bye. You all should know my rule by now that states you better be damned sure if you pick a road-division favorite. And with the Hekyll and Jekyll Steelers, how could you possibly be certain?
Last week: Bucs (-1.5) 27, Panthers 3 (Wow, didn't think it would be that easy)

(10 points) DENVER plus-3.5 over NEW ENGLAND
--> I don't know what the hell to think about the Patriots. I know they're not as bad as they played in last week's loss, but my opinion on them has dropped big time in the past few weeks. I know Tom Brady's gone, but does Matt Cassel realize he has Randy Moss? One thing I do know is the Broncos and Shanahan -- even though I can't stand him -- are good. Usually, when excellent coaches go up against each other, the better TEAM wins. And I think Denver is the better team.
Last week: Jets (-6.5) 26, Bengals 14 (Thomas Jones 3 TDs? Really? ... Really?)

(9 points) SAN FRANCISCO plus-10.5 over NY GIANTS
--> Again, if you've read my previous picks blogs, you know I don't think the G-Men should be laying a lot of points to anyone. They proved why last week. Still, I am not in love with this pick for the simple reason of not liking to pick a team that has to travel cross-country against one that is licking its wounds. I love the over, and if this spread was 9.5, I might have picked New York.
Last week: Saints (-7.5) 34, Raiders 3 (If it weren't the Saints, I'd have had this one at the top)

(8 points) CHICAGO minus-3.5 over MINNESOTA
--> The Vkings have had more than their share of really good luck the past two weeks, while Lovie Smith suffered from a brain fart last week at Atlanta. God, I hate the squib kick. What usually happens when a good coach makes a stupid mistake? They come back the next week and pound a mediocre (at best) team into oblivion. Bears might win by three touchdowns.
Last week: Chargers 30, Patriots (+5.5) 10 (Obviously, I have the Belicheats too high on my power rankings)

(7 points) WASHINGTON minus-7.5 over CLEVELAND
--> This is the game that determines whether the Redskins are a playoff contender or those two road division wins were a fluke. If they're for real, they'll get their act together after a major letdown last week against the Real Genuises and wallop a bad AFC team that is coming off a tremendous high. If they're not, they'll flop and be in a dogfight all afternoon. I think the Z(orn)-men are for real.
Last week: Colts (-4.5) 31, Ravens 3 (Is this the kick-start for the Horseshoe Heads?)

(6 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-.5 over GREEN BAY
--> Have I picked against the Colts this season? Come to think about it, I don't think I have picked against the Packers, either. Well, something's got to give. You know how I said earlier in the season I was almost ready to jump off the Colts bandwagon? I'm still real close, and I think this game will tell me just how good -- or not so good -- they are.
Last week: Jaguars (+3.5) 24, Broncos 17 (We shoulda had Del Rio 10 years ago ... OK, 20 years ago then)

(5 points) TAMPA BAY minus-10.5 over SEATTLE
--> This one goes back to my bad-team-headed-cross-country-to-play-a-good-team rule. The Seahawks have been absolutely decimated by injuries, and Seneca Wallace/Charlie Frye and Julius Jones just aren't gonna cut it against this defense. I don't expect the Bucs to put up all that many points, but the Seahawks might not score at all. My predic is a 17-0 final.
Last week: Rams (+13.5) 19, Redskins 17 (I wanna just pat myself on the back so bad ... I think I will)

(4 points) OAKLAND plus-3.5 over NY JETS
--> Ahh, memories of the Heidi game when I was about four months old. Why am I picking the Raiders, you ask? Because I am still not convinced Brett Favre changed the Jets that much. Yes, I realize Oakland is a bad team, but for some reason, bad teams have played well at home so far this year. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
Last week: Browns (+7.5) 35, Giants 14 (Leave dem sleepin dogs alone, ruff ruff)

(3 points) DETROIT plus-8.5 over HOUSTON
--> I think I'm picking the Lions more on sympathy than I am on logic. They should have won straight up last week. The Texans shold have lost. Oh, and there's one more reason that doesn't make any sense. I simply HATE the city of Houston, and I have never been to Detroit. Advantage Lions.
Last week: Vikings 12, Lions (+13.5) 10 (You can see when I pick the Lions, I have tons of confidence)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 6: 68 points, 9-5
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 40-32 (.556), 361 (72 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: MLC 402, JLE 382, Lopes 373, Me 361, LR 357 (won week, 80), JRap 335, Gene Pool 327, PVW 318, WWB 305, KVP 292, DJW 272

Week 6 NFL picks

OK, so I am officially over the Cubs loss. It obviously ruined my whole weekend, though, as my picks were once again awful. I am now treading in fourth place amongst the common people in my pick'em pool. What the heck is going on? MLC is leading for crying out loud! We cannot continue to let this happen, and with those Northside scumbags not around anymore to ruin my Mojo, we plan to get back on track with an 80-plus point week.

Here we go:

(16 points) CHICAGO minus-2.5 over ATLANTA
--> The Falcons, obviously, have been quite a surprise, and have one of the top running games in the NFL. That won't be an easy thing to continue against the Bears, who could end up taking over my spot as the NFC's No. 2 team, behind the Starheads. Atlanta has been great in three of five games, especially at home, but here comes their reality check.
Last week: Falcons 27, Packers (-6.5) 24 (Yes, I realize I am picking against the Falcons at the top two weeks in a row.)

(15 points) HOUSTON minus-2.5 over MIAMI
--> Picking a winless team to give up points against another who has defeated the top two teams in the AFC last season? Am I nuts? Well, maybe, but the Texans actually have played well, and last week did so without their starting quarterback against the Colts. The Dolphins are on the right track, but I'm not ready to pick them on the road against what I still believe is a quality team.
Last week: Dolphins 17, Chargers (-6.5) 10 (See a trend developing here?)

(14 points) DALLAS minus-5.5 over ARIZONA
--> The Cardinals still have much to prove in my eyes, regardless of their big win last week. Dallas, meanwhile, is coming off two sub-par performances and needs to turn it around. While the Birds shut down Marshawn Lynch last week, they did it daring J.P. Losman to throw. Do that against the Cowboys, and they're gonna get burned. Real bad.
Last week: Steelers 26, Jaguars (-3.5) 21 (Who'd a thunk Big Ben actually would have time to throw?)

(13 points) GREEN BAY plus-2.5 over SEATTLE
--> Why do people continue to think Seattle is good? Hell, why would you even think they're mediocre? They're in the worst division in football and struggling. This could be a statement game, meanwhile, for Aaron Rodgers. If he even wants to be considered in the top half of NFL quarterbacks, he'll shake off last week's loss and prove to his fans that he has a winning mentality.
Last week: Colts (-3.5) 31, Texans 27 (It would have been a REAL clunker of a week if the Colts wouldn't pulled this one out their horseshoe.)

(12 points) SAN FRANCISCO plus-4.5 over PHILADELPHIA
--> The Eagles are as banged up as any team in the NFL, especially at the key positions. Without Brian Westbrook, it will all be on Donovan McNabb's shoulders, who will be without Reggie Brown. The Niners continue to improve, and should give the Eagles a steady dose of Frank Gore. That is, if Mike Martz can get his head out of his keister and realize he has one of the best runnung backs in the league.
Last week: Bears (-3.5) 34, Lions 7 (Were they kidding us with that spread? And why the hell wasn't this my top pick? Mysteries, mysteries.)

(11 points) TAMPA BAY minus-1.5 over CAROLINA
--> You'd think I'd be sold on the Panthers by now, but I'm really not. I also believe the NFC South isn't nearly as good as it's played so far (with the exception of you-know-who). I still believe the Bucs will win it, assuming their old defense can keep up. Look for the Kiffinator to seal the ends, cover Muhsy and Steve Smith, and make DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart beat them. It won't work.
Last week: Patriots (-3.5) 30, 49ers 21 (Told ya what a week off could do for Mr. Belicheat.)

(10 points) NY JETS minus-6.5 over CINCINNATI
--> No Carson Palmer and an overacheiving defense. Brett Favre must be salivating after a week off and 56 points under his belt two weeks ago. This could be the week the Marvin Lewis watch truly begins, especially if he loses by three touchdowns, which is entirely possible.
Last week: Vikings 30, Saints (-2.5) 27 (That son of a bitch, Gramatica.)

(9 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-7.5 over OAKLAND
--> It's absolutely do or die for the Saints. If they lose this week, the complete meltdown will begin on the road at Carolina next week. Payton will not let that happen, and the goal this week should be the same for the Fleur-de-Lis as it was last week, albeit with a different name. Stop Darren McFadden, and let JaMarcus beat you. If that happens, shame on you.
Last week: Panthers (-9.5) 34, Chiefs 0 (I think I forgot that you were supposed to move the easiest picks to the top.)

(8 points) NEW ENGLAND plus-5.5 over SAN DIEGO
--> Really? The Chargers have been bad, and they likely are without their best receiver, Chris Chambers. All the while, we're still not sure LT is 100 percent, and the Patriots are still pissed. The bookies have given up on Belicheat, but I haven't.
Last week: Giants 44, Seahawks (+6.5) 6 (I need to take my own advice and realize how bad Seattle really is.)

(7 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-4.5 over BALTIMORE
--> One of these days I'm going to hop off this old-ass Colts Express. As much as I think the Ravens are improved, I'm actually putting this one on the Indianapolis defense. I can't see much scoring from them, and a 10-3 Colts win wouldn't shock me at all. Don't bet the house on this one.
Last week: Titans 13, Ravens (+2.5) 10 (There's no truth to the rumor I am picking against Baltmiore just because I am pissed they couldn't salt this one away.)

(6 points) JACKSONVILLE plus-3.5 over DENVER
--> This one's a toughie. If the spread was 2.5, I'd probably go the other way. Can't see the Jags defense playing as poorly as it did last week. All the while, Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall have sort of been exposed. Here's a hunch Maurice Jones-Drew and Old Man Taylor have a good day.
Last week: Broncos (-3.5) 16, Bucs 13 (See previous explanation.)

(5 points) ST. LOUIS plus-13.5 over WASHINGTON
--> Hear me out before you look to commit me. The Redskins are coming off two really tough division wins. The Rams have a new coach (I know who it is, numb nuts), and teams often play well the first week with a new coach, and especially after a bye. Look for a Washington let down, and I wouldn't even be shocked if St. Louis won straight up with the Real Men of Genius.
Last week: Cardinals 41, Bills (+0.5) 17 (Uh, I didn't see that coming.)

(4 points) CLEVELAND minus-7.5 over NY GIANTS
--> As you can see -- and will see -- I have decided to be a risky at the bottom. I just don't like the Giants giving this many points on the road -- to anyone. Also, Derek Anderson is fighting for his job, and more times than not when a quarterback is doing that, he plays well. Don't think the Browns will win, but I do think it will be surprisingly close.
Last week: Redskins 23, Eagles (-5.5) 17 (Way too much stock in Philly. No more.)

(3 points) DETROIT plus-13.5 over MINNESOTA
--> As bad as the Lions have been, Marinelli's plea last week really hit the heart. And if they get blown out again, I won't pick them again this year, I promise. Besides, who the hell are the Vikings to be giving almost two touchdowns to ANYBODY?
Last week: Cowboys (-13.5) 31, Bengals 22 (Looked like a cakewalk in the first quarter, grrr.)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 5: 45 points, 4-10 (ouch)
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 31-27 (.534), 293 points (73 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: MLC 323, JLE 305, Lopes 303, Me 293, JRap 285, LR 274, Gene Pool 259, WWB 244, PVW 239, KVP 238, DJW (won week, 92) 219

I want my six months back

In 1984, I was too young and too new to this whole thing to understand.

In 1989, I learned to hate Will Clark, but my fondness of this team was still in the developmental stage. Besides, we weren't supposed to be that good, and I learned how to make excuses. That's what Cubs fans do, right?

In 1998, Sosa was bigger than the season.

In 2003, Game 5 in Atlanta outshined the Bartman bullshit.

In 2007, Lou was just starting to get it together. Next year finally meant next year.

This. This. This is just unacceptable.

For those of you who aren't Cubs fans and don't understand, and even for those of you who haven't been Cubs fans for at least 15 years or so, I explained it to my bestest Cubs buddy via text message like this: I feel the same exact way I did Sept. 3, 1990. That was the night my first real girlfriend dumped me after being together for five years.

The funny -- maybe I should say weird, because it's not funny -- thing about that is that I thought for months that we should break up. I wanted to do it first, but didn't have the stones. When she did it though, it hit me out of the blue, and I wasn't ready for it to be over. It was devastating. Absolutely devastating.

That's how I feel about these (filth-flarn-filth)ing choking MFing losers. I should have quit on them before they quit on me.

In case you haven't figured it out, I am damned pissed.

This team supposedly was built for THIS season. Like Bestest said, they're never going to have a better lineup than this. They're never going to have a better rotation than this. The back end of their bullpen is never going to be better than this. What in the f&%@ do they need to win the World Series?

This may have been the best shot.

F*&@ the curse. F&%@ Bartman. F^#& the Goat.

It's not a curse. It's a mentality.

If you think like a loser, if you feel like a loser, if you look like a loser, you're going to be a God damned loser. So no more excuses. I will not be offering them again in this lifetime. I will now just say, "Yes, you're right" to the assholes who decide to poke and prod me. Even the ones who are fans from a nameless team who has never won a World Series. Not 100 years ago, never. Yep, they're right, too.

We suck. We'll never win. We should crawl in a f@@@ing hole.

There's no need to recap what happened, or rather, what didn't happen. They didn't show up, and I don't just mean these past three games. They won the division, and crawled into a bottomless hole. They played the last week of the regular season against the Mets and Brewers like they didn't care if they won or lost, and you simply can't play like that.

If you don't care for a week, you're not going to care when the lights come back on. And they played like they didn't care.

I wasted six months of my soul watching and living this group, because I truly believed from the last pitch of the NLDS sweep against the Diamondbacks last year this was it. This was the year I was going to feel the ecstasy of winning, not another agony of defeat.

I watched or listened to at least part of all but FOUR games this year. That is absolutely pathetic, and I am pissed at myself that it took this to figure it out.

No more.

Sure, when next April rolls around, I will still be a fan. Like everyone when they get pissed, it fades somewhat after time. I'll never forget how I feel right now, but I won't be mad anymore.

But they can't have any more of my soul. They certainly don't use it on the field.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqHTScDBsDU

ALL THE WAY by Eddie Vedder
Don't let anyone say that it's just a game
For I've seen other teams and it's never the same
When you're born in Chicago you're blessed and you're healed
The first time you walk into Wrigley Field
Our heroes wear pinstripes
Heroes in blue
Give us the chance to feel like heroes too
Forever we'll win and if we should lose
We know someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way

We are one with the Cubs
With the Cubs we're in love
Yeah, hold our head high as the underdogs
We are not fair-weather but foul-weather fans
We're like brothers in arms in the streets and the stands
There's magic in the ivy and the old scoreboard
The same one I stared at as a kid keeping score
In a world full of greed, I could never want more
Than someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way

And here's to the men and the legends we've known
Teaching us faith and giving us hope
United we stand and united we'll fall
Down to our knees the day we win it all

Ernie Banks said "Oh, let's play two"
Or did he mean 200 years
In the same ball park
Our diamond, our jewel
The home of our joy and our tears
Keeping traditions and wishes made new
A place where our grandfathers, fathers they grew
A spiritual feeling if I ever knew
And if you ain't been I am sorry for you
And when the day comes with that last winning run
And I'm crying and covered in beer
I'll look to the sky and know I was right
To think someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way

Week 5 NFL picks

I knew it was too good to last. A 22-9 start came crashing down last week, although I could have inched to within a game of .500 hadn't LT friggin run that last one in when they were just trying to run out the clock. Grrrr.

But I have to say that I feel much better about this week. (Although I feel good about the Cubs' chances to comeback, too, so what does that tell you?)

Let's get to the picks.

(16 points) GREEN BAY minus-6.5 over ATLANTA
--> The Falcons have been surprisingly good at home. This, though, is about the farthest thing from the Georgia Dome. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn't play, Greg Jennings can still catch it, no matter who's throwing it. And it's about time Matt Ryan figures out what a cheesehead is.
Last week: Chiefs 33, Broncos (-8.5) 19 (I told you I hate road-division favorites.)

(15 points) SAN DIEGO minus-6.5 over MIAMI
--> I had been with the Chargers all season, but for some unknown reason I went against them last week. Well, I am back on the bandwagon, and I ain't getting off again until they prove me wrong. Who cares if the Fish are on a rare one-game winning streak.
Last week: Titans (-3.5) 30, Vikings 17 (If I would have lost this one, it would have been real ugly last week.)

(14 points) JACKSONVILLE minus-3.5 over PITTSBURGH
--> The Steelers are almost as beat up as the Saints. And Big Ben must feel like he's been in a couple more motorcycle accidents. The Jags are coming off a close win against Houston, and this will be a big one in determining whether they are one of the AFC's elite. I think they are.
Last week: Bucs 30, Packers (+1.5) 21 (Another case of bad luck with Rodgers going down.)

(13 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-3.5 over HOUSTON
--> You'd think I would have learned my lesson picking against the Texans in a divisional game after last week. But even though I said I was leaving the Colts alone after they hosed me again, I just can't believe they're not better than they've showed. And a week off for old bodies had to do them some good.
Last week: Steelers 23, Ravens (+7.5) 23, OT (Monday night magic! I'm 3-0)

(12 points) CHICAGO minus-3.5 over DETROIT
--> Is this for real? Am I missing something? I usually shy away from spread which are too good to be true, but this is a joke. The Lions are the worst team in football -- with or without Matt Millen -- and the Bears have played above my expectations so far. And there's no such thing as a trap game. No way. No how.
Last week: Bears 24, Eagles (-3.5) 20 (I still don't get it.)

(11 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-3.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> This is the week we all find out if the Patsies really are that mediocre. My guess is that they aren't. And besides, it's hard to fathom that a pissed off Bill Belichick with a week to prepare for the Niners won't have his troops ready to rout.
Last week: Panthers (-6.5) 24, Falcons 9 (At least I had one easy pick ... don't know why this wasn't higher.)

(10 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-2.5 over MINNESOTA
--> Not sure if last week was the real Saints or a fluke, but if they play like that again, the Vikes are in for a two-touchdown whipping. Of course, if last year's Saints show back up, Adrian Peterson could rush for 250 yards, four touchdowns and make it 41-10. We still like Deuce and da boys.
Last week: Bills 31 (-8.5), Rams 14 (Whew. Glad the Rams really are THAT bad.)

(9 points) CAROLINA minus-9.5 over KANSAS CITY
--> The Chiefs and Falcons have a lot in common. Both seem to be tough at home and just plain awful on the road. The Panthers, meanwhile, have been steady, and steady should be more than enough to wax the Arrow Heads.
Last week: Jaguars 30 (-7.5), Texans 27 (Still not sure where that Houston team came from.)

(8 points) SEATTLE plus-6.5 over NY GIANTS
--> So what if they're the defending champs and the Seahawks have been anything but impressive? The Birds are coming off a bye week, and they're starting to get healthy. Just don't bet the house on it, even if the house ain't worth much these days.
Last week: Redskins 26, Cowboys (-11.5) 24 (Hindsight 20-20, but that was wayyy too many points to give up.)

(7 points) BALTIMORE plus-2.5 over TENNESSEE
--> We all know the Titans aren't that good. Meanwhile, I like what I see so far out of Joe Flacco. That team is going to be much better with Harbaugh running the show, and the defense will be the same old Ravens defense.
Last week: Saints (-6.5) 31, 49ers 17 (Too easy.)

(6 points) DENVER minus-3.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> Back at home for the Broncos, who are ready to restart The Jay Cutler Show. Forget about last week's hiccup ... this is might be the NFL's second-most potent offense to Dallas. And the Bucs' D isn't exactly the Bucs' D of old. Well, they are old.
Last week: Chargers 28 (-7.5), Raiders 18 (I had this one. I had this one. Dammit, LT.)

(5 points) BUFFALO plus-.5 over ARIZONA
--> Another team I can't bet against until they lose. And after last week's dismantling, why again are the Cardinals basically an even line against an undefeated team? Did the bookies watch what Old Man Favre did to them?
Last week: Browns 20, Bengals (-3.5) 12 (Ugh.)

(4 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-5.5 over WASHINGTON
--> Maybe I should have learned a lesson last week with the Skinsies. And I will if they prove me wrong again, but I still have the Eagles pegged to make the NFC championship game, and that would mean -- in my warped mind -- that they should win this one by a touchdown or so.
Last week: Jets 56, Cardinals (+2.5) 35 (Has Anquan Boldin regain consciousness yet?)

(3 points) DALLAS minus-13.5 over CINCINNATI
--> When do we think Marvin Lewis is going to get fired? This is a whole heckuva lotta points to give to any NFL team, but the Bengals won't be able to stop a Romo-led team which is looking to get back to its dominant ways.
Last week: No pick

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 4: 5-8, 56 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 27-17 (.614), 248 points (83 per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: Me 248, MLC 247, JLE 242, Lopes 221, Gene Pool 219, JRap 218, LR 203, KVP 191, PVW 188, WWB 184, DJW 127

I talk to myself

When you're a long-time Cubs fan, sometimes it helps to talk to yourself. Who cares if anyone else thinks you're crazy? You sort of have to be a little nuts to root for a team that hasn't won the World Series in 100 years.

One hundred years. I am not sure I can grasp how long that really is. You can put it into context and tell me that Teddy Roosevelt was president 100 years ago, or oil was hardly needed back then and probably cost something like 16 cents a barrel or that even no one lived in Alaska back then, and therefore couldn't see Russia from their backyard without Galileo's telescope.

The best way I can even begin to fathom the length of time this has been is that my beloved grandfather, a man I loved almost as much as my Cubbies and who died at the age of 92 in 1995 was 6 when the Cursed Wonders were last world champs. And that, I can dig, is a really, really long time ago.

I cannot stress how much I want my favorite sports team on the planet to get this frickin 4,000-ton gorilla (wow, that would be a damned big gorilla) off their back. But it's for more than just the simple reason of wanting what I have never had before and something that would in all likelihood finish in the top 3 moments of my life.

I want this historic run of futility to be over so people will just shut the hell up. That includes all the fans of other teams who already have won (sometimes multiple) World Series. Yes, shut up. I want fans of other teams who haven't won to shut up. I want people who aren't fans of any team to shut up.

JUST SHUT UP!

I can comprehend that telling people to shut up is about as mature as talking to one's self. This, though is what it has come to.

All this rambling leads me to tonight's NL Divisional Series Game 1 loss to the Dodgers.

I did a lot of mumbling to myself. (You can ask JLE, who was sitting across from me and although she's a Cubs fan, it had to be somewhat humorous for her.) All of this while trying to work and keep my sanity and trying not to jump out of my chair every time something went wrong.

Just so I don't keep it all bottled up, let me let y'all in on some of this conversation ...

Me: Yes, a two-run lead. I love that DeRosa. He has come through in plenty of clutch situations this season. I hope Dempster stops freakin walking people and we can get it to Marmol and Woody with the lead. You think we can do it?

Me: I feel good about it, but the walks are worrying me. They've got to yank him if he can't find control.

(Thirty minutes later. Grand slam. 4-2 Dodgers.)

Me: See I told you. What the hell is Lou thinking? You had to get him out of there.

Me: Come on, don't blame Lou. He is the reaosn why we're here.

Me: Yeah, and Dusty Baylor (that's what I call him) got the Giants to the World Series. I want results, dammit!

Me: It's only Game 1, jackass. Calm the F down. We've got Big Z going tomorrow, and when we even it up, we just need to win one in L.A.

You get the picture. I think you can understand why it really is so important for the Cubs to get this schneid over with and just win a title.

Win it for The Goat. Win it for The Bartman. Win it for The Curse.

Just win it, for God's sake, so normal people will stop walking down the street saying, "Look honey, there goes another poor Cubs fan. He's talking to himself."

Top office quotes (Hon. mention)

Usually, honorable mention is last. But this one happened after I already had started, and it might have cracked the top 5, had I not set them up. We'll even call it an extra honorable mention.

And P.S. we're really glad Metry Mama is paying attention, because we were wondering for a while. She asked last night, "Where the hell is this extra quote? You promised an extra quote, and I want it, dammit. You had plenty of time."

So here it is Mama:

AUGUST 21, 2008
JLE (don't know what caused this, but it really doesnt matter): "I am vaginally impaired." (I can't make this stuff up.)

UPDATE AUGUST 26, 2008
"I meant that it was some sort of handicap. Not that I don't have one."