Week 5 NFL picks

I knew it was too good to last. A 22-9 start came crashing down last week, although I could have inched to within a game of .500 hadn't LT friggin run that last one in when they were just trying to run out the clock. Grrrr.

But I have to say that I feel much better about this week. (Although I feel good about the Cubs' chances to comeback, too, so what does that tell you?)

Let's get to the picks.

(16 points) GREEN BAY minus-6.5 over ATLANTA
--> The Falcons have been surprisingly good at home. This, though, is about the farthest thing from the Georgia Dome. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn't play, Greg Jennings can still catch it, no matter who's throwing it. And it's about time Matt Ryan figures out what a cheesehead is.
Last week: Chiefs 33, Broncos (-8.5) 19 (I told you I hate road-division favorites.)

(15 points) SAN DIEGO minus-6.5 over MIAMI
--> I had been with the Chargers all season, but for some unknown reason I went against them last week. Well, I am back on the bandwagon, and I ain't getting off again until they prove me wrong. Who cares if the Fish are on a rare one-game winning streak.
Last week: Titans (-3.5) 30, Vikings 17 (If I would have lost this one, it would have been real ugly last week.)

(14 points) JACKSONVILLE minus-3.5 over PITTSBURGH
--> The Steelers are almost as beat up as the Saints. And Big Ben must feel like he's been in a couple more motorcycle accidents. The Jags are coming off a close win against Houston, and this will be a big one in determining whether they are one of the AFC's elite. I think they are.
Last week: Bucs 30, Packers (+1.5) 21 (Another case of bad luck with Rodgers going down.)

(13 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-3.5 over HOUSTON
--> You'd think I would have learned my lesson picking against the Texans in a divisional game after last week. But even though I said I was leaving the Colts alone after they hosed me again, I just can't believe they're not better than they've showed. And a week off for old bodies had to do them some good.
Last week: Steelers 23, Ravens (+7.5) 23, OT (Monday night magic! I'm 3-0)

(12 points) CHICAGO minus-3.5 over DETROIT
--> Is this for real? Am I missing something? I usually shy away from spread which are too good to be true, but this is a joke. The Lions are the worst team in football -- with or without Matt Millen -- and the Bears have played above my expectations so far. And there's no such thing as a trap game. No way. No how.
Last week: Bears 24, Eagles (-3.5) 20 (I still don't get it.)

(11 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-3.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> This is the week we all find out if the Patsies really are that mediocre. My guess is that they aren't. And besides, it's hard to fathom that a pissed off Bill Belichick with a week to prepare for the Niners won't have his troops ready to rout.
Last week: Panthers (-6.5) 24, Falcons 9 (At least I had one easy pick ... don't know why this wasn't higher.)

(10 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-2.5 over MINNESOTA
--> Not sure if last week was the real Saints or a fluke, but if they play like that again, the Vikes are in for a two-touchdown whipping. Of course, if last year's Saints show back up, Adrian Peterson could rush for 250 yards, four touchdowns and make it 41-10. We still like Deuce and da boys.
Last week: Bills 31 (-8.5), Rams 14 (Whew. Glad the Rams really are THAT bad.)

(9 points) CAROLINA minus-9.5 over KANSAS CITY
--> The Chiefs and Falcons have a lot in common. Both seem to be tough at home and just plain awful on the road. The Panthers, meanwhile, have been steady, and steady should be more than enough to wax the Arrow Heads.
Last week: Jaguars 30 (-7.5), Texans 27 (Still not sure where that Houston team came from.)

(8 points) SEATTLE plus-6.5 over NY GIANTS
--> So what if they're the defending champs and the Seahawks have been anything but impressive? The Birds are coming off a bye week, and they're starting to get healthy. Just don't bet the house on it, even if the house ain't worth much these days.
Last week: Redskins 26, Cowboys (-11.5) 24 (Hindsight 20-20, but that was wayyy too many points to give up.)

(7 points) BALTIMORE plus-2.5 over TENNESSEE
--> We all know the Titans aren't that good. Meanwhile, I like what I see so far out of Joe Flacco. That team is going to be much better with Harbaugh running the show, and the defense will be the same old Ravens defense.
Last week: Saints (-6.5) 31, 49ers 17 (Too easy.)

(6 points) DENVER minus-3.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> Back at home for the Broncos, who are ready to restart The Jay Cutler Show. Forget about last week's hiccup ... this is might be the NFL's second-most potent offense to Dallas. And the Bucs' D isn't exactly the Bucs' D of old. Well, they are old.
Last week: Chargers 28 (-7.5), Raiders 18 (I had this one. I had this one. Dammit, LT.)

(5 points) BUFFALO plus-.5 over ARIZONA
--> Another team I can't bet against until they lose. And after last week's dismantling, why again are the Cardinals basically an even line against an undefeated team? Did the bookies watch what Old Man Favre did to them?
Last week: Browns 20, Bengals (-3.5) 12 (Ugh.)

(4 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-5.5 over WASHINGTON
--> Maybe I should have learned a lesson last week with the Skinsies. And I will if they prove me wrong again, but I still have the Eagles pegged to make the NFC championship game, and that would mean -- in my warped mind -- that they should win this one by a touchdown or so.
Last week: Jets 56, Cardinals (+2.5) 35 (Has Anquan Boldin regain consciousness yet?)

(3 points) DALLAS minus-13.5 over CINCINNATI
--> When do we think Marvin Lewis is going to get fired? This is a whole heckuva lotta points to give to any NFL team, but the Bengals won't be able to stop a Romo-led team which is looking to get back to its dominant ways.
Last week: No pick

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 4: 5-8, 56 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 27-17 (.614), 248 points (83 per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: Me 248, MLC 247, JLE 242, Lopes 221, Gene Pool 219, JRap 218, LR 203, KVP 191, PVW 188, WWB 184, DJW 127