Week 9 NFL picks

Hold your nose boys and girls. No, I'm not talking about Tuesday's election. This is something much worse. Rather, it's that time of the week when I tell everyone who not to pick. And if you picked against me the past two weeks, you made quite a bit of cash to take the kiddies out for a steak -- every night for the past 10 days.

After a 22-9 start, I have fallen below .500 for the season for the first time in '08. My numbers are so low, I don't think I could beat out Bob Barr on Tuesday. But we're determined to make this thing right. So, I guess what I am saying is, bet against me at your own risk. I changed up some of my strategies and think I'm ready for a big week.

We'll see, ha ha.

Here we go ...

(16 points) ATLANTA minus-2.5 over OAKLAND
--> Here's the first change of order. I got off the Raiders bandwagon, and am jumping on the Dirty Birds for at least a week. Even though they struggled last week, new coach Mike Smith has impressed the hell out of me. Matt Ryan looks for real, and we know Michael Turner is. Could be a big day for both of them, and I'm looking for a blowout.
Last week: Panthers (-4.5) 27, Cardinals 23 (This was the beginning of the big flop -- and I;m not talking about poker)

(15 points) ARIZONA minus-2.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> The Real Men of Genius have been cracked. The Cardinals hung tough in Carolina last week. That all means something to me. If the Rams find a way to win this one, it means they found a way to stop Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. No matter how wrong I have been, I can't see that happening.
Last week: Redskins (-7.5) 25, Lions 17 (Whew. Barely. It could've been a 2-12 week.)

(14 points) PITTSBURGH plus-2.5 over WASHINGTON
--> Speaking of getting exposed, the Redskins aren't as good as advertised in road wins at Dallas and Philly. The Steelers have been consistent, and with Willie Parker coming back, expect the unexpected from them. I just think Pittsburgh is way too physical for the Skins, although it should be a great game. Look for the Steelers to win straight up in a close one.
Last week: Jets (-12.5) 28, Chiefs 24 (How in the hell did Tyler Thigpen almost pull this one out straight up?)

(13 points) CLEVELAND minus-1.5 over BALTIMORE
--> My first pick of a home team this week -- and only one of four. The Browns have played well enough since beating the Giants to merit being a bigger favorite here. The Ravens beat the Raiders. Big deal. Looking for a low-scoring game with the Browns winning by a late Jamal Lewis touchdown.
Last week: Browns 23, Jaguars (-6.5) 17 (What a weird season)

(12 points) HOUSTON plus-4.5 over MINNESOTA
--> One of the few things I got right in the past couple of weeks is that I think the Texans are underrated. Look for their defense to do what the Saints did and even better. Shove eight men in the box and let Gussy beat you. Meanwhile, give the Vikings porous defense a large does of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson. Love the Texans, straight up here.
Last week: Seahawks 34, 49ers (-4.5) 13 (At least when I'm wrong, I'm usually really wrong)

(11 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-6.5 over SEATTLE
--> If there's one thing the Eagles can do well, they're able to beat a bad team. And usually handily. After a week in which Holmgren's boys gave Grunge City some hope against the lowly Niners, it's back to reality. Donovan McNabb is not JT O'Sullivan, and the Eagles defense ... well, you get the picture. This one could get ugly.
Last week: Titans 31, Colts (+3.5) 21 (Maybe when Tennessee is 15-0 I'll believe they're for real)

(10 points) GREEN BAY plus-5.5 over TENNESSEE
--> Like I said, I just can't seem to pull the trigger on the Titans. So what if their defense is playing really well? I can't believe Kerry Collins is stringing them along. It will be interesting to see what happens to them if they trail heading into the fourth quarter. Also, Aaron Rodgers got a contract extension this week, so he'll have something to prove. At the minimum, I think it'll be close, but I like the Pack straight up.
Last week: Dolphins 25, Bills (-1.5) 17 (Will the real Dolphins show up please?)

(9 points) JACKSONVILLE minus-8.5 over CINCINNATI
--> The scary thing about this one is that the Jags haven't won by more than a touchdown all season. But the more important piece of this puzzle is that they have had maybe the toughest schedule in the league so far. There has not been a gimme, and Del Rio was pissed after falling at home to the Brownies last week. Look for a good team to respond in a big way.
Last week: Saints 37, Chargers (-2.5) 32 (What in the hell was that? And do it again please.)

(8 points) KANSAS CITY plus-8.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> I have to be honest, this one's on a gut feeling. Last week could have been just a fluke, but I look for the Arrowheads to play a little better the rest of the way. And besides, NFC South teams have been anything but impressive on the road, and the Bucs are no different. They're 1-3 straight up away from Raymond James Stadium.
Last week: Giants 21, Steelers (-2.5) 14 (Wish we had John Carney five years ago ... OK, now)

(7 points) DALLAS plus-8.5 over NY GIANTS
--> Just once have the defending champs rolled as a big favorite -- against lowly Seattle. The Cowboys certainly have their issues, but if they want to stay in the running for the NFC East -- and if Wade Phillips wants to keep a secure hold on his job -- the Starheads will have to put up a big fight. I think they're too good not to do at least that.
Last week: Patriots (-7.5) 23, Rams 16 (Grrr, I hate those half-point losses)

(6 points) NY JETS plus-5.5 over BUFFALO
--> Usually when I pick against the Bills, it comes back to haunt me. But I just can't pick them to give up that many points as bad as they've played lately. I don't think there will be a ton of points scored in this one, and in a close game, I like the Men of Favre.
Last week: Eagles 27, Falcons (+8.5) 14 (The Birds just can't overcome a good defense. Lesson learned.)

(5 points) DENVER minus-3.5 over MIAMI
--> Obviously, the oddsmakers have given the Dolphins respect. It shows, too, what they think of the back-down-to-Earth Broncos. This spread means Miami would be almost a field-goal favorite at home. I can't honestly believe that these two teams are that close. But you can see how much faith I have in this one.
Last week: Texans (-9.5) 35, Bengals 6 (Houston moving up my confidence chart)

(4 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-5.5 over NEW ENGLAND
--> I was all set to jump off the Colts bandwagon -- which I have stated for about a month now -- but then here comes the Patsies. A completely healed Peyton has been waiting for a chance to destroy his nemesis. And here, he gets it, as it's now or never. Don't bet da house, though.
Last week: Cowboys (-2.5) 13, Bucs 9 (Shoulda been much easier)

(3 points) DETROIT plus-12.5 over CHICAGO
--> The Lions have improved, and I don't see them being routed by their arch-rival. Also, one of my cardinal rules is that I hate giving up more than 10 points to any NFL team, no matter how bad they are. And despite the 0-fer so far, I just don't think Deeeetroit is that horrendous.
Last week: Ravens 29, Raiders (+6.5) 10 (I'm so glad I don't have to talk about last week anymore)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 8: Awful. Just awful. Oh, you want actual numbers. (Reluctant) 24 points, 3-11
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 46-54 (.460), 400 points (57 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: MLC 537, JLE 532, Lopes 464, LR 447, WWB 439, PVW 422, Gene Pool 411, JRap (won week, 70 points) 411, KVP 403, Me 400, DJW 392