Week 10 NFL picks

Finally, finally, finally, a decent week. Maybe not the 11-3 kinda week we had earlier in the season, but back on the winning track and still some hope that we finish the season above .500. Can we put a streak together? Well, now that the election is over (more on that later), the NFL has my undivided attention.

Here we go ...

(16 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-4.5 over BUFFALO
--> The Bills have begun to show their mediocre side. Also, memo to Dick Jauron: Will you stop using Fred Jackson so GD much?? Do you realize you have one of the best goal-sniffers on the planet? Anyhoo, the Patriots, despite losing to Indy, seem to be closing in on their old selves. Not their 16-0 old selves, but their AFC East championship selves. And that's good enough to beat the Bills by more than a TD at home.
Last week: Falcons (-2.5) 24, Raiders 0 (A 16-point breather ... Hooooray)

(15 points) KANSAS CITY plus-14.5 over SAN DIEGO
--> This one's got trap written all over it, but I'm taking the bait. There's no way the Chargers should be this big a favorite against a team that has been playing much better the past couple of weeks. With S.D.'s defense, assuming they give up 24, the Chargers would have to score 39 or more. Don't see that happening. Of course, the Chiefs have been absolutely horrendous on the road, but I'll go back to old reliable -- never give an NFL team more than 10 or 11 points.
Last week: Cardinals (-2.5) 34, Rams 13 (Real Men of Genius show true colors)

(14 points) NEW ORLEANS even over ATLANTA
--> Breaking one of my big rules not to take the Saints with a double-digit-point pick, but I'm using pure logic here. Sean Payton has never lost to Atlanta. The Saints have had a week off to get a little healthier -- minus Charles Grant, that is. Although the Falcons have been a tough bird to kill at home, it's this week we find out whether the Bless You Boys have a legitimate shot at the postseason. If I'm wrong, the season is over, and it doesn't have that "it's over" feel to it just yet.
Last week: Steelers (+2.5) 23, Redskins 6 (Too easy)

(13 points) ARIZONA minus-9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> I always like to pick teams I think are good in second-half games where they need to make a statement. Such is the case this week for the Cardinals. A bad division foe at home at a time where they need to prove to the NFL world they belong. Plus, it doesn't hurt that Anquan Boldin is back, and Kurt Warner looks like the Greatest Show on Turf Kurt Warner. We know it won't last, but it will for a little while longer.
Last week: Ravens 37, Browns (-1.5) 27 (It's obvious I have given the Browns too much credit ... see 9-point pick below)

(12 points) MIAMI minus-8.5 over SEATTLE
--> OK, I am finally ready to give the Fins a little credit. Of course, this is where they probably let me down, like the last time I picked them. But the Seabags are proving me right how awful they are without Hasselbeck, and it doesn't look like he'll be back for at least another week. I hope.
Last week: Vikings 28, Texans (+4.5) 21 (Almost moved this one even higher ... it all worked for me last week)

(11 points) PITTSBURGH even over INDIANAPOLIS
--> I told you last week that I already jumped off the Colts bandwagon, but if I hadn't already picked this one on CBS, I'd probably move it way down and take Indy. Willie Parker is all but out, and there's a real good chance Byron Leftwich will be back at QB. I'm just crossing my fingers here.
Last week: Eagles (-6.5) 26, Seahawks 7 (Holmgren's boys are the gift that keeps on paying)

(10 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-2.5 over NY GIANTS
--> The Birdbrains haven't fared all that well against the league's better teams, but the Giants have been a little vulnerable on the road. Also, the G-Men haven't been all that great after a big win, and after shattering the Cowboys last week, they're due to take a downward turn. Look for a low-scoring game and a straight-up win by the Eagles on a David Akers field goal in the fourth quarter.
Last week: Titans 19, Packers (+5.5) 16 (I was wrong on the Packers winning straight up, but at least I got the pick correct)

(9 points) CLEVELAND minus-2.5 over DENVER
--> THURSDAY LOSS. What a way to start the week. Damned choking Brownies.
Last week: Bengals 21, Jaguars (-8.5) 19 (You tryin to get fired, Del Rio?)

(8 points) BALTIMORE plus-1.5 over HOUSTON
--> The Ravens' D had been looking like the D of old until it gave up 27 to the Browns last week in a win. The Texans, though, haven't been too good with Sage Rosenfels in there, and he'll be back on the field Sunday. Another low-scoring game, and another winner on a field goal in the fourth quarter -- this one by Matt Stover.
Last week: Bucs 30, Chiefs (+8.5) 27 (You can't give the big, bad Chefs points at home!)

(7 points) ST. LOUIS plus-7.5 over NY JETS
--> The real Rams came back to Earth last week, but this is no powerhouse they're facing. While the Bretts have been on a roll, they haven't exactly been destroying their opponents. They'll keep it close here, too.
Last week: Giants 35, Cowboys (+8.5) 14 (Maybe the Starheads really are that bad)

(6 points) GREEN BAY plus-2.5 over MINNESOTA
--> It seems the Packers are my pet team in the NFC this year. I rarely pick against them, and they rarely let me down. This week, they'll do what the Texans couldn't -- put eight men in the box and actually shut down Bernard Berrian and the like.
Last week: Jets (+5.5) 26, Bills 17 (If the Bretts are dogs, I'm probably gonna pick 'em)

(5 points) CHICAGO plus-2.5 over TENNESSEE
--> So the one bandwagon I refuse to jump off of is the Anti-Titans bandwagon. I want to be there when they finally fall. I want to let the world know I got it right when I picked against that mediocre undefeated team. I will eventually make that pick of the year. Of course, we'll ignore all the ones I got wrong before that happens.
Last week: Dolphins 26, Broncos (-3.5) 17 (I jumped on the Dolphins' train a week too late)

(4 points) DETROIT minus-7.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> I'm not sure if I like this because the Jaguars are so bad or because the Lions have recently been playing tight games on a regular basis. Of course, this was done before I found out Daunte Culpepper was starting at QB for Deeeetroit. Glad I put this one at the bottom.
Last week: Colts (-5.5) 18, Patriots 15 (I forgot Dungy doesn't like to add on points when he has a chance)

(3 points) OAKLAND plus-9.5 over CAROLINA
--> I refuse to believe any NFL team is as bad as Oakland played last week. The Panthers, meanwhile, have struggled on the road. All of that, and I have successfully talked myself into picking the woeful Raiders once again.
Last week: Bears 27, Lions (+12.5) 23 (Detroit's not all that bad against the spread)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 9: 8-6, 83 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 54-60 (.474), 483 points (60 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE 630, MLC 594, Lopes 528, LR 522, Gene Pool (won week, 101) 512, DJW 488, WWB 484, Me 483, JRap 476, PVW 468, KVP 433