Week 13 NFL picks

A little Turkey Day surprise all two of you have been waiting for. It's the early edition!

So we got a huge boost from the ghost of Robert Frost. Now, 9-7 isn't exactly lighting it up, but after the past five or six weeks of, um, picks, we'll take it. We even beat JLE this week! And although we liked the strategy, we're gonna skip trying to do the poem thing again. (Of course, we'll go right back to it if we suck again.)

Don't eat too much ... Here we go ...

(16 points) HOUSTON minus-2.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> So what if we chickened out and stopped the two-week streak of taking the Saints up here? Obviously, TLL is not afraid to lose a pick or two. And besides, we're going to start a new streak of Monday night picks. As far as this one, I give up on the Jags. The Texans aren't world-beaters by any means, but Garrard has been awful, and three of Houston's four wins have come at home. In their previous meeting, the Texans lost by three at Jacksonville.
Last week: Saints (-2.5) 51, Packers 29 (Cha-ching)

(15 points) BUFFALO minus-6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> Other than a white-washing of the Rams two weeks ago, the Niners have been awful since early in the season. Mike Singletary hasn't been the answer, although I think that's more because of Cheesetits Martz. For the Bills, if they have any shot remaining at the playoffs, they HAVE to win this one. They'll do it convincingly.
Last week: Bills (-3.5) 54, Chiefs 31 (His number is 23, Jauron. Give it to him. He wants it. Yes. Now.)

(14 points) SAN DIEGO minus-5.5 over ATLANTA
--> Oh everybody is just so ga-ga over the Falcons. Blah blah blah. So what if Matt Ryan is by far the best rookie QB of the season and should be around for a long, long time? So what if Michael Turner scored four touchdowns last week (*#&@**^#&&@ FILTH, FLARN FILTH)? So what if their defense made Carolina look like Tulane? In one of those why-is-this-spread-so-ridiculous games, the bookies know something, and I smell a rat.
Last week: Falcons 45, Panthers (E) 28 (Just plain ewwwww)

(13 points) KANSAS CITY plus-2.5 over OAKLAND
--> Everybody's off the Chiefs bandwagon and on the Raiders. It's funny how these terrible teams do well against the spread about every other week. It's not a coincidence, but it's funny. You know, not ha-ha funny, but like your cousin from Missouri funny. Weird. That's it. Weird, I meant. OK, maybe I'm a little funny. (We know, not ha ha.)
Last week: Patriots (+2.5) 48, Dolphins 28 (Told ya not to fall for the Fins givin-points-to-a-good-team thing)

(12 points) MINNESOTA minus-2.5 over CHICAGO
--> The Bears are 2-4 against teams who now have a winning record and have won just one of those on the road -- at Indy in Week 1. The Vikes haven't lost at home since Week 2 to, coincidentally, Indy. This one's for control in the NFC North, and until the Bears prove their offense isn't worthless against someone other than the Rams, I'm picking against them.
Last week: Vikings (-2.5) 30, Jaguars 12 (I sure do put the same teams in the same slot often, don't I?)

(11 points) DENVER plus-7.5 over NY JETS
--> My second "because the bookie's makin too much money on this one" pick of the week. Hey, if there's one thing I did right last week was picking the ones that didn't make any sense. My wife often tells me I don't make any sense, so it makes sense how I recognize the ones that don't make sense.
Last week: Texans (-3.5) 16, Browns 6 (That Brady Quinn deal lasted a long time, huh?)

(10 points) CLEVELAND plus-4.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
--> Man, the bookies are going to either rack up this week or take it straight up the bunghole. And seriously, how often do bookies take it in the bunghole? I mean some of them go to jail, and ... never mind. Just take the Brownies cuz everybody else isn't.
Last week: Bucs 38, Lions (+8.5) 20 (Even with a straight-up 17-point lead, never think the Lions "have this one in the bag")

(9 points) DETROIT plus-10.5 over TENNESSEE
--> Had this one higher, but then I started thinking about how pissed Tennessee will be, and I backed off slightly. Still, the Lions have been playing better, and I am convinced they aren't going 0-16. I don't think they'll win outright here, but the Thanksgiving audience won't be as bored as one might think.
Last week: Jets 34, Titans (-5.5) 13 (I did it again. I need to pay attention to this trend.)

(8 points) CINCINNATI plus-7.5 over BALTIMORE
--> Another division home team getting points. Sure seems like there have been an awful lot of them this year, huh? Ocho Cinco and daddy Marvin seem to be back on the same page, and if you take away Ed Reed, the Ravens still can't score. This might end up being the most boring game of the season. And if the weather's bad, don't be surprised with a 3-0 ending.
Last week: Ravens 36, Eagles (E) 7 (And again ... wow. Next week I am moving teams all over the place.)

(7 points) GREEN BAY minus-2.5 over CAROLINA
--> Prepare for the Exposing of the Panthers to continue against a mediocre team that plays very well at home. (Sound familiar?) All three of Carolina's losses have come on the road, and by a combined 92-41. And much like the Saints last week, the Pack has only been home once in the past five weeks. Lambeau will be rockin.
Last week: Steelers (-10.5) 27, Bengals 10 (Broke the Thursday losing streak)

(6 points) PITTSBURGH even over NEW ENGLAND
--> The Steelers' schedule has been brutal, and they remain in good shape. Despite the fact that Willie Parker looks out again, they often play just as well without him. New England, meanwhile, has alternated win-loss for five straight weeks, and only one of their wins comes against teams who now have more than six victories. The weather could be nasty Sunday, and that certainly favors Pittsburgh.
Last week: Cowboys (-10.5) 35, 49ers 22 (Had this one higher but got scurred)

(5 points) MIAMI minus-7.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> Guess the Real Men had their two weeks of fun. The Dolphins, who seem to be just about everybody's Cinderella for the playoffs, need a convincing win after last week's shellacking. The thing is if you allow 27 to the Bears, you'll probably give up 40 to the Wildcat Dolphins.
Last week: Colts 23, Chargers (-2.5) 20 (Nice comeback for naught)

(4 points) NY GIANTS minus-3.5 over WASHINGTON
--> See, if I was going with my too-good-to-be-true-and-the-bookies-definitely-know-something rule, I would certainly go the other way. But I have watch too many games these two have played the past few weeks, and I don't see any other outcome but a Redskins defeat. A big defeat. And you can see you confident I am about it.
Last week: Redskins 20, Seahawks (-3.5) 17 (Gotta love that halfa point)

(3 points) NEW ORLEANS plus-4.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> Here is my official tribute to the New Orleans Saints. Do I think they'll win? No. Do I think they'll cover? Probably not. Do I think they got me 16 points each of the past two weeks and I had an awesome time last Monday and I said I can't stop picking them until they lose and I'm gonna stick by that? Absolutely. Go Black and Gold.
Last week: Raiders (+9.5) 31, Broncos 10 (Sometimes you just don't ask questions)

(2 points) SEATTLE plus-12.5 over DALLAS
--> Hmm, let me think if I can come up with a rational explanation for this gut-feeling pick. I got it. The Seabags only lost by three points last week to a Redskins team that beat the Cowboys straight up in Texas Stadium. How's that? That's the best I can do, jackass.
Last week: Giants 37, Cardinals (+3.5) 29 (G-Men again make me look bad ... You know, kinda like poker makes Jennifer Tilly look bad?)

(1 point) PHILADELPHIA minus-2.5 ARIZONA
--> There is no way in hell anyone can make me believe the Eagles, especially Donovan McNabb, are this bad. That is no way in hell unless the Cardinals prove me wrong. Then, I never pick these scumbags again. (Unless they play the Jaguars. Nope, they don't play. OK, maybe the Chiefs. OK, good, don't play them either.)
Last week: Bears 27, Rams (+7.5) 3 (I think I learned my lesson now)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 12: 9-7, 87 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 73-87 (.456), 656 points (60 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE 889, MLC 751, LR 736, Lopes 720, Gene Pool 699, WWB (won week, 94) 694, JRap 688, PVW 657, Me 656, DJW 652, KVP 627