Giving thanks

Today is not only the day we eat until we're ready to pass out, all the while leaving the mess for someone else to clean up. No, it's called Thanksgiving for a reason. If there's one thing I don't do enough of, it's to give thanks.

I'll do my best to make up a little bit, because I do have plenty to be thankful for.

--> I am thankful for Metry Mama. In fact, I am not sure how I would make it without her. She has been the best thing to happen to me -- by far -- and she is the most selfless person I have ever met. I am not just thankful for her because she cooks, cleans and does all the things I hate doing without complaining, but I am most thankful because she is my best friend. And honestly, when looking for the person you want to spend the rest of your life with, who could ask for more than that? And it's also cool that I have one of the best stepsons on the planet. I am soooo thankful for that.

--> I am thankful to have been healthy my first 40 years. Thankful, and I guess I should be sort of surprised. You know I am reminded every day by people who don't smoke that I shouldn't smoke. Did you know that it's bad for you? Someone should have told that to my grandfather who smoked, drank wine every day, ate fried food every day and lived to be 92. I guess that's part of why he was (sort of still is) my idol. Oh, and he hated George Steinbrenner.

--> I am thankful to have many friends. I know a ton of people who don't, and I know they aren't as happy as I am. Hell, I'm even thankful for Tommy Crosby. I have been blessed throughout life to be surrounded by people I could count on. And I hope I have been there for them when they needed me most. Without my friends, there have been many times throughout life where I'd a been *&*# outta luck.

--> I am thankful to have had just about everything I ever wanted. So maybe I wasn't spoiled as a kid, but I have certainly spoiled myself as an adult. Can't think of many things I need -- or want -- that I don't have. Sure, I'd love to win the lottery this weekend and never have to work again, but it's not neccessary. I enjoy life to the fullest, and not to sound like those cliches that I hate so much, but I live every day like it's my last. It's the only way to go.

--> I am thankful to have a job. It would be tough to be thankful for the last item if I didn't have a job. Especially these days. People often throw around the term uncertain times, but I don't think there have been more uncertain times in my lifetime than now. After my first five years of employment where I jumped around from job to job (I think I had like nine different ones, including three at one time at one point), I have been at The TP for a little over 18 years. It's hard to fathom. Seriously. With all the stupid things I have said and done? Wow. And thank you.

--> I am thankful for all the little things in life. Date nights with Metry Mama, although we haven't had as many as we'd have liked lately. (We're gonna fix that soon, Mama.) Football Day with Big Buffet. Poker night. The Finks Football League. The Cubbies and Saints. Being 18 again with Mike P, even if it is mostly over the phone these days. Watchin baseball with Drew and Billy and our convos about whatever -- again, not as often as I'd like anymore. Havin a drink with Scotty on Saturday nights after work and listening to Joe play all those songs no one else but me likes. My family, especially my two nephews and two nieces. And too many more to mention. But without 'em, I might lose my sanity.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Week 13 NFL picks

A little Turkey Day surprise all two of you have been waiting for. It's the early edition!

So we got a huge boost from the ghost of Robert Frost. Now, 9-7 isn't exactly lighting it up, but after the past five or six weeks of, um, picks, we'll take it. We even beat JLE this week! And although we liked the strategy, we're gonna skip trying to do the poem thing again. (Of course, we'll go right back to it if we suck again.)

Don't eat too much ... Here we go ...

(16 points) HOUSTON minus-2.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> So what if we chickened out and stopped the two-week streak of taking the Saints up here? Obviously, TLL is not afraid to lose a pick or two. And besides, we're going to start a new streak of Monday night picks. As far as this one, I give up on the Jags. The Texans aren't world-beaters by any means, but Garrard has been awful, and three of Houston's four wins have come at home. In their previous meeting, the Texans lost by three at Jacksonville.
Last week: Saints (-2.5) 51, Packers 29 (Cha-ching)

(15 points) BUFFALO minus-6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> Other than a white-washing of the Rams two weeks ago, the Niners have been awful since early in the season. Mike Singletary hasn't been the answer, although I think that's more because of Cheesetits Martz. For the Bills, if they have any shot remaining at the playoffs, they HAVE to win this one. They'll do it convincingly.
Last week: Bills (-3.5) 54, Chiefs 31 (His number is 23, Jauron. Give it to him. He wants it. Yes. Now.)

(14 points) SAN DIEGO minus-5.5 over ATLANTA
--> Oh everybody is just so ga-ga over the Falcons. Blah blah blah. So what if Matt Ryan is by far the best rookie QB of the season and should be around for a long, long time? So what if Michael Turner scored four touchdowns last week (*#&@**^#&&@ FILTH, FLARN FILTH)? So what if their defense made Carolina look like Tulane? In one of those why-is-this-spread-so-ridiculous games, the bookies know something, and I smell a rat.
Last week: Falcons 45, Panthers (E) 28 (Just plain ewwwww)

(13 points) KANSAS CITY plus-2.5 over OAKLAND
--> Everybody's off the Chiefs bandwagon and on the Raiders. It's funny how these terrible teams do well against the spread about every other week. It's not a coincidence, but it's funny. You know, not ha-ha funny, but like your cousin from Missouri funny. Weird. That's it. Weird, I meant. OK, maybe I'm a little funny. (We know, not ha ha.)
Last week: Patriots (+2.5) 48, Dolphins 28 (Told ya not to fall for the Fins givin-points-to-a-good-team thing)

(12 points) MINNESOTA minus-2.5 over CHICAGO
--> The Bears are 2-4 against teams who now have a winning record and have won just one of those on the road -- at Indy in Week 1. The Vikes haven't lost at home since Week 2 to, coincidentally, Indy. This one's for control in the NFC North, and until the Bears prove their offense isn't worthless against someone other than the Rams, I'm picking against them.
Last week: Vikings (-2.5) 30, Jaguars 12 (I sure do put the same teams in the same slot often, don't I?)

(11 points) DENVER plus-7.5 over NY JETS
--> My second "because the bookie's makin too much money on this one" pick of the week. Hey, if there's one thing I did right last week was picking the ones that didn't make any sense. My wife often tells me I don't make any sense, so it makes sense how I recognize the ones that don't make sense.
Last week: Texans (-3.5) 16, Browns 6 (That Brady Quinn deal lasted a long time, huh?)

(10 points) CLEVELAND plus-4.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
--> Man, the bookies are going to either rack up this week or take it straight up the bunghole. And seriously, how often do bookies take it in the bunghole? I mean some of them go to jail, and ... never mind. Just take the Brownies cuz everybody else isn't.
Last week: Bucs 38, Lions (+8.5) 20 (Even with a straight-up 17-point lead, never think the Lions "have this one in the bag")

(9 points) DETROIT plus-10.5 over TENNESSEE
--> Had this one higher, but then I started thinking about how pissed Tennessee will be, and I backed off slightly. Still, the Lions have been playing better, and I am convinced they aren't going 0-16. I don't think they'll win outright here, but the Thanksgiving audience won't be as bored as one might think.
Last week: Jets 34, Titans (-5.5) 13 (I did it again. I need to pay attention to this trend.)

(8 points) CINCINNATI plus-7.5 over BALTIMORE
--> Another division home team getting points. Sure seems like there have been an awful lot of them this year, huh? Ocho Cinco and daddy Marvin seem to be back on the same page, and if you take away Ed Reed, the Ravens still can't score. This might end up being the most boring game of the season. And if the weather's bad, don't be surprised with a 3-0 ending.
Last week: Ravens 36, Eagles (E) 7 (And again ... wow. Next week I am moving teams all over the place.)

(7 points) GREEN BAY minus-2.5 over CAROLINA
--> Prepare for the Exposing of the Panthers to continue against a mediocre team that plays very well at home. (Sound familiar?) All three of Carolina's losses have come on the road, and by a combined 92-41. And much like the Saints last week, the Pack has only been home once in the past five weeks. Lambeau will be rockin.
Last week: Steelers (-10.5) 27, Bengals 10 (Broke the Thursday losing streak)

(6 points) PITTSBURGH even over NEW ENGLAND
--> The Steelers' schedule has been brutal, and they remain in good shape. Despite the fact that Willie Parker looks out again, they often play just as well without him. New England, meanwhile, has alternated win-loss for five straight weeks, and only one of their wins comes against teams who now have more than six victories. The weather could be nasty Sunday, and that certainly favors Pittsburgh.
Last week: Cowboys (-10.5) 35, 49ers 22 (Had this one higher but got scurred)

(5 points) MIAMI minus-7.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> Guess the Real Men had their two weeks of fun. The Dolphins, who seem to be just about everybody's Cinderella for the playoffs, need a convincing win after last week's shellacking. The thing is if you allow 27 to the Bears, you'll probably give up 40 to the Wildcat Dolphins.
Last week: Colts 23, Chargers (-2.5) 20 (Nice comeback for naught)

(4 points) NY GIANTS minus-3.5 over WASHINGTON
--> See, if I was going with my too-good-to-be-true-and-the-bookies-definitely-know-something rule, I would certainly go the other way. But I have watch too many games these two have played the past few weeks, and I don't see any other outcome but a Redskins defeat. A big defeat. And you can see you confident I am about it.
Last week: Redskins 20, Seahawks (-3.5) 17 (Gotta love that halfa point)

(3 points) NEW ORLEANS plus-4.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> Here is my official tribute to the New Orleans Saints. Do I think they'll win? No. Do I think they'll cover? Probably not. Do I think they got me 16 points each of the past two weeks and I had an awesome time last Monday and I said I can't stop picking them until they lose and I'm gonna stick by that? Absolutely. Go Black and Gold.
Last week: Raiders (+9.5) 31, Broncos 10 (Sometimes you just don't ask questions)

(2 points) SEATTLE plus-12.5 over DALLAS
--> Hmm, let me think if I can come up with a rational explanation for this gut-feeling pick. I got it. The Seabags only lost by three points last week to a Redskins team that beat the Cowboys straight up in Texas Stadium. How's that? That's the best I can do, jackass.
Last week: Giants 37, Cardinals (+3.5) 29 (G-Men again make me look bad ... You know, kinda like poker makes Jennifer Tilly look bad?)

(1 point) PHILADELPHIA minus-2.5 ARIZONA
--> There is no way in hell anyone can make me believe the Eagles, especially Donovan McNabb, are this bad. That is no way in hell unless the Cardinals prove me wrong. Then, I never pick these scumbags again. (Unless they play the Jaguars. Nope, they don't play. OK, maybe the Chiefs. OK, good, don't play them either.)
Last week: Bears 27, Rams (+7.5) 3 (I think I learned my lesson now)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 12: 9-7, 87 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 73-87 (.456), 656 points (60 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE 889, MLC 751, LR 736, Lopes 720, Gene Pool 699, WWB (won week, 94) 694, JRap 688, PVW 657, Me 656, DJW 652, KVP 627

Week 12 NFL picks

Desperate times call for desperate new ways to make my picks. So, in honor of Robert Frost's 135th birthday in March, we're going to take the Road Less Traveled this week. That's right, for all except maybe four or five games, I tried to pick the opposite of what I thought would be the mainstream. Also in honor of Mr. Frost, I will attempt a poem for each pick. Cut, paste and show it to the kiddies. If it doesn't work, I think we'll try Dice Clay's poems next week. P.S. Forgive me if I don't punctuate correctly. I failed poetry class.

Here we go ...

(16 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-2.5 over GREEN BAY
The Saints were the way to go last week
So we'll ride that train til they're dead
If they get blown out like most expect
I'll lose my last little bit of cred
Last week: Saints (-5.5) 30, Chiefs 20 (Every-other-week strategy worked this time)

(15 points) BUFFALO minus-3.5 over KANSAS CITY
Coach Jauron sometimes forgets
He's got number 23 in the backfield
Don't worry Marshawn Lynch fans
Because he knows the real deal
Last week: Jets 34, Patriots (-2.5) 31 (Like I said last week, I hate NFL overtime rules)

(14 points) CAROLINA even over ATLANTA
The Dirty Birds do well at home
But we all know they're a fluke
And if I lose another 14-point game
It will just make me want to puke
Last week: Giants 30, Ravens (+6.5) 10 (The Raven? Wrong poet)

(13 points) NEW ENGLAND plus-2.5 over MIAMI
Last time I picked the Pats
To roll right over them Fins
Made me want to take my picks
And throw them right into the trash bin
Last week: Cardinals 26, Seahawks (+2.5) 20 (So much for them road-division favs)

(12 points) MINNESOTA plus-2.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I never know what to think
When I watch the disappointing Jags
They stink, they're good, they stink, they're good
As inconsistent as a bunch of used-up rags
Last week: Bucs (-3.5) 19, Vikings 13 (T.B. at home is like free money)

(11 points) HOUSTON plus-3.5 over CLEVELAND
Here's one of those picks
Where everybody likes the other club
Everybody, that is, except me and D
And I guess that means this one is sure to flub
Last week: Panthers (-13.5) 31, Lions 22 (I don't get it)

(10 points) DETROIT +7.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Lions are ready to feast on turkey
Come to think of it, so am I
Oh yeah, and don't forget the stuffing,
the potato salad and definitely the pumpkin pie
Last week: Eagles (-9.5) 13, Bengals 13 (Maybe the worst game in the history of the NFL. Yes, ever)

(9 points) TENNESSEE minus-5.5 over NY JETS
I would have bet a pretty penny
To bet Fisher's boys wouldn't be 10-0
But then again, I have no idea what a pretty penny is
So I don't have to think about it no mo (Groans from the crowd, I know)
Last week: Broncos 24, Falcons (-5.5) 20 (Can anyone figure out Denver?)

(8 points) PHILADELPHIA even over BALTIMORE
Both teams use an intimidating bird
To represent the face of their franchise
But Uncle Sam's choice is very well-known
And to cross him just wouldn't be wise
Last week: Steelers (-3.5) 11, Chargers 10 (Another blown call cost me a win)

(7 points) PITTSBURGH minus-10.5 over CINCINNATI (Thurs.)
It only took me three weeks
But I finally got a Thursday game right
Sorry to screw up my losing streak, y'all
It was simply a minor oversight
Last week: Cowboys (-1.5) 14, Redskins 10 (The Boys are back?)

(6 points) DALLAS minus-10.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
All must be right in the world
Between Tony and Jessica again
Here's hoping he throws four TD passes
Hell, wait, go ahead and make it ten
Last week: Colts (-7.5) 33, Texans 27 (Doesn't Dungy know how to put his foot on the opposition's throat?)

(5 points) SAN DIEGO minus-2.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
Everyone on the planet
Is picking Peyton and the boys
But I'm riding on LT's shoulders
To help me make a little noise
Last week: 49ers 35, Rams (+5.5) 16 (Back to life, back to reality)

(4 points) SEATTLE plus-3.5 over WASHINGTON
Last week we picked the Seabags
And we're givin 'em one more shot
If they lose in this one
I hope they all die of crotch rot
Last week: Packers 37, Bears (+4.5) 3 (Yeah, this one was close)

(3 points) OAKLAND plus-9.5 over DENVER
We all know the Raiders are terrible
But it's hard to know just how bad
Instead of letting JaMarcus throw the ball
Why don't they give it to some other lad
Last week: Browns (+5.5) 29, Bills 27 (And it was a great game to boot)

(2 points) ARIZONA plus-3.5 over NY GIANTS
I keep picking against the G-Men
And they keep making me look silly
But I try and try anyway
Kinda like poker and Jennifer Tilly
Last week: Titans (-2.5) 24, Jags 14 (Great, I got a bunch at the bottom right)

(1 point) ST. LOUIS plus-7.5 over CHICAGO
We come to the end of our little poetic journey
And we hoped you all got a little chuckle
How fitting we end with the Real Men of Genius
Because if you pick them, you usually want to hit yourself with a belt buckle
Last week: Dolphins 17, Raiders (+10.5) 15 (More bottom feeding)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 11: 6-10, 41 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 64-80 (.444), 569 points (57 per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE (won week, 97) 815, MLC 691, Lopes 676, LR 651, Gene Pool 626, JRap 604, WWB 600, PVW 593, DJW 592, Me 569, KVP 569

Random thoughts (very random)

Metry Mama has almost given up on reading the lovable loser. She used to ask me every day when I was going to put something new up, but now ... nothin. I can't let her down. I have to give her something to read besides NFL picks (which she doesn't read anyway ... good thing lol).

So I decided to jot down a few mental notes that have popped into my head recently. I mean why the hell not? Isn't that what this little free corner of Al Gore's world is for?

RUFF, RUFF
Why the hell do people feel the need to bring their dogs with them when they go somewhere? Metry Mama and I went to lunch Monday and then to pick up The Boy, and in the span of about two hours, I saw at least seven dogs. And that's including the one who was sitting outside with his owner and his owner's two companions at Caffe Caffe for lunch.

What's worse than bringing your dog for a ride in the car? Bringing your f'ing dog to lunch. Get a friend. Buy a cell phone. Just don't be such a damned loser.

DON'T PISS OFF YOUR WIFE
I learned when I was like 18 that girls hold a grudge. And if they don't hold a grudge, they hold it in their memory bank. Me? I'm good with dates. I can tell you when I moved into the house I grew up on (April 6, 1978) and the day my dad left home (April 6, 1982) and my cousin Sylvia's birthday (February 14), even though I haven't seen her in like 10 years.

Women? They can tell you every bad thing you have ever done, and usually tell you when you did it within two weeks. Something like, "Remember when you were supposed to take the trash out and it was like 32 degrees outside and I had to do it and I caught a cold and then you forgot to stop at Walgreens to get me some cough syrup and then I had to go and got sicker and then ..." ENOUGH ALREADY.

Look women: We know we F up. We just need you to know a couple things: A) Nineteen times out of 20, we don't mean it. And B) We're probably going to do it again.

Do you have to hold it against us every Godforsaken time? We love you. You love us. Can't we all just get along?

(I will be sleeping with one eye open tonight.)

IS IT JUST ME?
I asked this of Metry Mama last night and she said it wasn't. I mean it isn't supposed to be this cold here this early? Usually, I don't stop wearing shorts on the weekends til a week or two after Thanksgiving. No can do this year, Skippy. Brrrrr. I looked at the forecast for the weekend, and the high Friday is like 58 and the low is 37. WHAT THE F??

So much for global warming? Reminds me of when it snowed on Christmas. Of course, a few months later we had a pretty big storm that forced me to leave the city for six weeks. What was her name again?

WAY TOO QUIET
Wanna see the proof that parity has struck the Finks Football League like no other season in our 20-year history? Just take a look at the smack talk. Or, rather, the lack of. Even Tommy hasn't said a word in like six weeks. I did a search, and there were only like three references to "Pizza Boy" all season. Speaking of him, I've only been asked to suck a roooooooooot like maybe five or six times. Definitely a record low. I've heard, "The Blowholes have spoken" less than 10 times. Ridiculous.

I don't even think the team with the best record -- the 9-2 Plunderin Poons -- have asked to merge all season! And from what I understand, the lights in the Pipher trailer park has stayed on all season long. In the East, Bunnnee Boy must have eaten too many carrots.

And to top it all off -- and this one really hurts my feelings -- I don't think ANYONE has accused me of cheating all year.

This has got to stop people. Where are all my old friends?

OK, I've been given the snap by our night editor du noir. So, I'll leave it at that. But I'll try to write more often. I promise, Mama.

Week 11 NFL picks

Well, it was back to bottom-feeding last week. Way, way at the bottom. As in last place. How could it be so damned rank after the ungodly start. Let's don't ask questions; let's change our philosophy. This week, we're going to back off of feelings and be a little more analytical. Hell, it can't get any worse (although we started the week with a 15-point miss ... damned Belicheat).

If it works, we'll go explain the how later. If it doesn't, we'll forget we ever tried the new formula. We'll also try to forget this season and glad I didn't wager this season like I did last, or all that money I won in '07 would be gone, gone, gone.

Here we go ...

(16 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-5.5 over KANSAS CITY
--> Speaking of different, if we're going to buck the rules, let's buck 'em. Buck their asses. The Saints at the top? Purely analytical, I assure you. The Saints are a team of sheer and utter inconsistency. They stink it up one week and look like world-beaters the next. This is the next, and we'll give 'em a shot.
Last week: Patriots (-4.5) 20, Bills 10 (Buffalo becoming the team to pick against)

(15 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-2.5 over NY JETS
--> Did I ever mention how much I think the NFL's overtime rules are asinine? What a waste of a comeback.
Last week: Chargers 20, Chiefs (+14.5) 19 (Top two right for a change!)

(14 points) BALTIMORE plus-6.5 over NY GIANTS
--> Everybody and their grammaw are on the Giants' bandwagon, while the Ravens have been an excellent underdog pick all season long, including last week, when they won outright by 28 as a dog. While I don't expect those results two weeks in a row, I do expect their defense to keep it real close.
Last week: Falcons 34, Saints (E) 20 (I knew better)

(13 points) SEATTLE plus-2.5 over ARIZONA
--> Another dog that has fared much better, and this week features the return of Matt Hasselbeck. The Cardinals are on a high after beating a bad football team, and needing help to do it. While the Desert Beakmen have had flashes of being good, more ofthen than not, they've been mediocre. On the road in a division game won't be good enough this week.
Last week: Cardinals (-9.5) 29, 49ers 24 (If only I felt that way about Arizona last week)

(12 points) TAMPA BAY minus-3.5 over MINNESOTA
--> The one thing I am sticking to from previous weeks is picking NFC South teams at home. Not only do they usually win, but they usually win big. And unlike dumb moves in the past this season, I'm going to do my best to stop bucking trends.
Last week: Dolphins (-8.5) 21, Seahawks 19 (Did I really allow Miami to give that many points?)

(11 points) CAROLINA minus-13.5 over DETROIT
--> While the Lions have been a good choice against the spread the past few weeks, I go back to what I said about Tampa Bay. NFC South teams usually win handily at home this year, except the Saints, as we all know. As the Panthers begin their stretch for the division title, they need to start winning a little more convincingly.
Last week: Colts 24, Steelers (E) 20 (Now I pick against Indy?)

(10 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-9.5 over CINCINNATI
--> Speaking of trends, if there's one thing the Eagles can do, it's beat up on a terrible opponent. Also, they're getting into must-win territory with the NFC East so bunched up after New York. Expect them to take out their frustrations on soon-to-be-fired Marvin Lewis and the Bengal Cubs.
Last week: Giants (+2.5) 36, Eagles 31 (Yeah, I really gave points to the G-Men)

(9 points) ATLANTA minus-5.5 over DENVER
--> I have no more faith in the Broncos, and besides, I don't think I am going against Jay Cutler in any fantasy football league, so he'll wait to have a five-touchdown game until next week. The Falcons have made me a believer, especially when they're at home. And the Georgia Dome will be rockin this week (as much as 40,000 lame-asses can rock, anyway).
Last week: Broncos 34, Browns (-2.5) 30 (Jekyll and Hyde Brownies ...)

(8 points) PITTSBURGH minus-3.5 over SAN DIEGO
--> LT's whining about the Chargers' lack of running game -- Whose fault is that? -- and they're dangerously close to being an afterthought in the playoffs discussion. Meanwhile, the Steelers haven't played back-to-back bad games yet this season, and I don't expect it to start now. Also, remember what we said a few weeks ago about teams who had to go cross country? It doesn't usually work out too well.
Last week: Ravens (+1.5) 41, Texans 13 (I love the no-doubters)

(7 points) DALLAS minus-1.5 over WASHINGTON
--> The rare instance I choose to break the road-division favorite rule. I have said often how mediocre I think the Skins are, while the 'Boys should get a boost from the return of Romo. If they don't, Mr. Phillips will be shown the door, possibly as soon as this week. This is also a game where the bookies should make lots of dough, and I love to pick the side less traveled in those games.
Last week: Jets 47, Rams (+7.5) 3 (Note to self: It's Jim Haslett, dummy)

(6 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-7.5 over HOUSTON
--> This is more for the same reason why I picked the Colts two weeks ago. The Texans have started to play like the Texans, and Peyton is starting to look like pre-surgery Peyton. All this and they're back at home? Chalk it up.
Last week: Vikings 28, Packers (+2.5) 27 (Two weeks in a row the Pack lose, but cover ... I got something right)

(5 points) ST. LOUIS plus-5.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> OK, so I never learn to stay away from the Real Men of Genius ... especially after I made that nice, neat note to myself. Oh well. The thinking here is that the Niners are going to respond one of two ways after last week's debacle. They'll either win in a rout or get routed. I like the latter because I'm not sure Singletary has yet figured out how to keep Martz from calling bad plays.
Last week: Titans 21, Bears (+2.5) 14 (Yep, still don't believe in dem Titans ... hard, hard head)

(4 points) CHICAGO plus-4.5 over GREEN BAY
--> The Pack has done a good job covering as a dog, but that's because they've been in so many close games. I don't think that will change this week, which means it's Chicago who covers this one.
Last week: Jaguars 38, Lions (+7.5) 14 (Their string of better play had to end sometime)

(3 points) CLEVELAND plus-5.5 over BUFFALO
--> I just can't let the Bills give any team points with as bad as they've been. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention (until now) how pissed I am at Jauron for not using Marshawn Lynch enough. Maybe he'll realize when Mojo was scoring, the Bills were winning. We'll see.
Last week: Panthers 17, Raiders (+9.5) 6 (Damned meaningless field goal)

(2 points) TENNESSEE minus-2.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> So I wait until I can break by road-division rule to pick the Titans. I guess I was just waiting for the right time to jinx them.
Last week: No pick

(1 point) OAKLAND plus-10.5 over MIAMI
--> Don't think the Dolphins should give double digits to anyone, and the Raiders have played better on the road than they have at home. Plus, it's another instance, I believe, of everyone else loving Miami. My kind of game.
Last week: No pick

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 10: 4-10, 45 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 58-70 (.453), 528 points (59 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE 718, MLC 631, Lopes 625, LR 600, Gene Pool 584, JRap 564, DJW 553, KVP (won week, 107) 540, WWB 539, PVW 539, Me 528

Inside the numbers

I'm doing so poorly the past few weeks with my NFL picks, I decided I was going to do some studying inside the numbers to figure out why. I've got enough time to get myself back into respectable shape. There were a few stats which I decided to check out. And to see if they pan out the remainder of the season, I figured I'd post them here, and revisit at the end of the season.

WINNING PERCENTAGE
--> The obvious of all the stats. The better your winning percentage, the more money you make. Anything above .510 means you're making money. Anything better than .550 is phenomenal. Conversely, you need to hit some excellent parlays to be winning money if you're under .485 or so. And if you're below .460, you probably shouldn't even do this for fun for fear of complete embarrassment.

1. JLE (77-51) .601 (1st in points, 718)
2. JRap (63-51) .553 (6th in points, 564)
3. MLC (69-59) .539 (2nd in points, 631)
4. Lopes (67-61) .523 (3rd in points, 625)
5. Gene Pool (64-64) .500 (5th in points, 584)
6. LR (62-66) .484 (4th in points, 600)
7. WWB (57-71) .475 (tied for 9th in points, 539)
8. DJW (59-69) .461 (7th in points, 553)
9. (tie) PVW (tied for 9th in points, 539),
   Me (58-70) .453 (last in points, 528)
10. KVP (56-72) .438 (8th in points, 540)

In our point system we're using on CBS, where you rank your picks and get more points for the ones each picker deems more important (16 points for top-rated game, 15 for second and so on), the standings are pretty close to form, except for JRap, who didn't turn in his picks one week.

It also shows that the sports copy desk doesn't always do the best job of picking with a composite record of 631-634, which isn't horrible with a .499 winning percentage, but it won't win anyone any money, either.

POINTS PER WIN
--> This is the stat I figured matters most ... or right up there, assuming you can get your percentage above the .500 mark. The higher your points-per-win, the more value you're getting and the less number of wins you need. (That's assuming you're not betting on all 13 to 16 games every week, which, of course, I am not.)

This stat, surprisingly, does not go according to standings. In fact, it's all over the place. I suspect that will change a bit by the end of the season, especially if JLE comes back to the pack a bit and the standings are tight.

1. LR 9.68 points per win
2. KVP 9.64
3. WWB 9.34
4. DJW 9.37
5. Lopes 9.33
6. JLE 9.32
7. PVW 9.29
8. MLC 9.14
9. Gene Pool 9.13
10. Me 9.10
11. JRap 8.96

This means that LR gets the most value out of his correct picks, but in all, everyone seems to be pretty tight.

UNDERDOG WINNERS
--> An underrated stat, which I feel, I can turn a good season of picking into a great one. This is how I made money last year, parlaying underdogs into 4 to 6 times my original bet, depending on the depth of the dog.

It's also a spot where I haven't fared as well this season. In looking at past dog winners, I noticed a pattern. Since we started this in Week 2, at least six dogs have won each week. That means that I must do a better job of, A) making sure I have at least six dogs in my picks, and B) studying which ones are the right ones.

Let's go player by player and figure out if dogs are helping or hurting them:

JLE: Not only has she done an unbelievable job with a .601 winning percentage and an 87-point lead, but she's fared even better with underdog winners. Her worst week (record-wise) was the first, going 3-5. Since then, she's 38-19 picking underdog winners. That is almost unheard of. Too bad she's not spending the fall in Vegas. One look at these numbers, and it's no surprise she's dominating the pick 'em.
--> 41-24 (.631, 1st); 351 points (1st); .489 pct of points come from dogs (2nd)

MLC: If he had just a little more luck here, he'd be ginving JLE a run for her money. Instead, MLC loooves the favorites, and even when he does get the dog right, he doesn't get many points from them. That's because he doesn't trust the dogs.
--> 27-38 (.415, 6th); 194 points (6th); .307 pct of points from dogs (6th)

Lopes: It's amazing he's in third place with his absolute fear of canines. He doesn't pick many of them, and when he does (except for last week, that is), they are usually wrong. Last week's 5-2 record in dog-winner games helped out a good bit. It accounted for one-third of all the points Lopes has received from mutts this year.
--> 20-45 (.307, tied 8th); 188 points (7th); .301 pct of points from dogs (7th)

LR: A hot start and a decent last couple of weeks says Mr. Reilly isn't afraid to go out on a limb. Unlike Lopes and MLC, dogs are the reason why LR remains in the chase for second place. The first week and last week are good for about 40 percent of his total, so a little consistency wouldn't hurt.
--> 31-34 (.477, 3rd); 265 points (3rd); .442 pct of ponts from dogs (3rd)

Gene Pool: Solid and consistent, and second only to JLE in this category. He has three weeks with 47 points or more coming from dogs. I, conversely, have four weeks where I scored less than 47 points overall. TGP has just two weeks below .500 in picking dog winners. Excellent.
--> 36-29 (.554, 2nd); 311 points (2nd); .533 pct of points from dogs (1st)

THE REST
JRap: 21-29 (.323, 7th); 138 points (10th); .247 pct of points from dogs (10th)
DJW: 29-34 (.446, 4th); 238 points (4th); .427 pct of points from dogs (4th)
KVP: 11-54 (.169, 11th); 102 points (11th); .189 pct of points from dogs (11th)
WWB: 18-47 (.277, 10th); 139 points (9th); .259 pct of points from dogs (9th)
PVW: 20-45 (.308, tied 8th); 141 points (8th); .262 pct of points from dogs (8th)
Me: 28-35 (.431, 5th); 215 points (5th); .407 pct of points from dogs (5th)

We'll see if all this research pays off, as I looked for trends and try to use them to my advantage with this week's picks. Let's hope this waste of time with solid boredom comes to good use.

Week 10 NFL picks

Finally, finally, finally, a decent week. Maybe not the 11-3 kinda week we had earlier in the season, but back on the winning track and still some hope that we finish the season above .500. Can we put a streak together? Well, now that the election is over (more on that later), the NFL has my undivided attention.

Here we go ...

(16 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-4.5 over BUFFALO
--> The Bills have begun to show their mediocre side. Also, memo to Dick Jauron: Will you stop using Fred Jackson so GD much?? Do you realize you have one of the best goal-sniffers on the planet? Anyhoo, the Patriots, despite losing to Indy, seem to be closing in on their old selves. Not their 16-0 old selves, but their AFC East championship selves. And that's good enough to beat the Bills by more than a TD at home.
Last week: Falcons (-2.5) 24, Raiders 0 (A 16-point breather ... Hooooray)

(15 points) KANSAS CITY plus-14.5 over SAN DIEGO
--> This one's got trap written all over it, but I'm taking the bait. There's no way the Chargers should be this big a favorite against a team that has been playing much better the past couple of weeks. With S.D.'s defense, assuming they give up 24, the Chargers would have to score 39 or more. Don't see that happening. Of course, the Chiefs have been absolutely horrendous on the road, but I'll go back to old reliable -- never give an NFL team more than 10 or 11 points.
Last week: Cardinals (-2.5) 34, Rams 13 (Real Men of Genius show true colors)

(14 points) NEW ORLEANS even over ATLANTA
--> Breaking one of my big rules not to take the Saints with a double-digit-point pick, but I'm using pure logic here. Sean Payton has never lost to Atlanta. The Saints have had a week off to get a little healthier -- minus Charles Grant, that is. Although the Falcons have been a tough bird to kill at home, it's this week we find out whether the Bless You Boys have a legitimate shot at the postseason. If I'm wrong, the season is over, and it doesn't have that "it's over" feel to it just yet.
Last week: Steelers (+2.5) 23, Redskins 6 (Too easy)

(13 points) ARIZONA minus-9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> I always like to pick teams I think are good in second-half games where they need to make a statement. Such is the case this week for the Cardinals. A bad division foe at home at a time where they need to prove to the NFL world they belong. Plus, it doesn't hurt that Anquan Boldin is back, and Kurt Warner looks like the Greatest Show on Turf Kurt Warner. We know it won't last, but it will for a little while longer.
Last week: Ravens 37, Browns (-1.5) 27 (It's obvious I have given the Browns too much credit ... see 9-point pick below)

(12 points) MIAMI minus-8.5 over SEATTLE
--> OK, I am finally ready to give the Fins a little credit. Of course, this is where they probably let me down, like the last time I picked them. But the Seabags are proving me right how awful they are without Hasselbeck, and it doesn't look like he'll be back for at least another week. I hope.
Last week: Vikings 28, Texans (+4.5) 21 (Almost moved this one even higher ... it all worked for me last week)

(11 points) PITTSBURGH even over INDIANAPOLIS
--> I told you last week that I already jumped off the Colts bandwagon, but if I hadn't already picked this one on CBS, I'd probably move it way down and take Indy. Willie Parker is all but out, and there's a real good chance Byron Leftwich will be back at QB. I'm just crossing my fingers here.
Last week: Eagles (-6.5) 26, Seahawks 7 (Holmgren's boys are the gift that keeps on paying)

(10 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-2.5 over NY GIANTS
--> The Birdbrains haven't fared all that well against the league's better teams, but the Giants have been a little vulnerable on the road. Also, the G-Men haven't been all that great after a big win, and after shattering the Cowboys last week, they're due to take a downward turn. Look for a low-scoring game and a straight-up win by the Eagles on a David Akers field goal in the fourth quarter.
Last week: Titans 19, Packers (+5.5) 16 (I was wrong on the Packers winning straight up, but at least I got the pick correct)

(9 points) CLEVELAND minus-2.5 over DENVER
--> THURSDAY LOSS. What a way to start the week. Damned choking Brownies.
Last week: Bengals 21, Jaguars (-8.5) 19 (You tryin to get fired, Del Rio?)

(8 points) BALTIMORE plus-1.5 over HOUSTON
--> The Ravens' D had been looking like the D of old until it gave up 27 to the Browns last week in a win. The Texans, though, haven't been too good with Sage Rosenfels in there, and he'll be back on the field Sunday. Another low-scoring game, and another winner on a field goal in the fourth quarter -- this one by Matt Stover.
Last week: Bucs 30, Chiefs (+8.5) 27 (You can't give the big, bad Chefs points at home!)

(7 points) ST. LOUIS plus-7.5 over NY JETS
--> The real Rams came back to Earth last week, but this is no powerhouse they're facing. While the Bretts have been on a roll, they haven't exactly been destroying their opponents. They'll keep it close here, too.
Last week: Giants 35, Cowboys (+8.5) 14 (Maybe the Starheads really are that bad)

(6 points) GREEN BAY plus-2.5 over MINNESOTA
--> It seems the Packers are my pet team in the NFC this year. I rarely pick against them, and they rarely let me down. This week, they'll do what the Texans couldn't -- put eight men in the box and actually shut down Bernard Berrian and the like.
Last week: Jets (+5.5) 26, Bills 17 (If the Bretts are dogs, I'm probably gonna pick 'em)

(5 points) CHICAGO plus-2.5 over TENNESSEE
--> So the one bandwagon I refuse to jump off of is the Anti-Titans bandwagon. I want to be there when they finally fall. I want to let the world know I got it right when I picked against that mediocre undefeated team. I will eventually make that pick of the year. Of course, we'll ignore all the ones I got wrong before that happens.
Last week: Dolphins 26, Broncos (-3.5) 17 (I jumped on the Dolphins' train a week too late)

(4 points) DETROIT minus-7.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> I'm not sure if I like this because the Jaguars are so bad or because the Lions have recently been playing tight games on a regular basis. Of course, this was done before I found out Daunte Culpepper was starting at QB for Deeeetroit. Glad I put this one at the bottom.
Last week: Colts (-5.5) 18, Patriots 15 (I forgot Dungy doesn't like to add on points when he has a chance)

(3 points) OAKLAND plus-9.5 over CAROLINA
--> I refuse to believe any NFL team is as bad as Oakland played last week. The Panthers, meanwhile, have struggled on the road. All of that, and I have successfully talked myself into picking the woeful Raiders once again.
Last week: Bears 27, Lions (+12.5) 23 (Detroit's not all that bad against the spread)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 9: 8-6, 83 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 54-60 (.474), 483 points (60 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE 630, MLC 594, Lopes 528, LR 522, Gene Pool (won week, 101) 512, DJW 488, WWB 484, Me 483, JRap 476, PVW 468, KVP 433