Inside the numbers

I'm doing so poorly the past few weeks with my NFL picks, I decided I was going to do some studying inside the numbers to figure out why. I've got enough time to get myself back into respectable shape. There were a few stats which I decided to check out. And to see if they pan out the remainder of the season, I figured I'd post them here, and revisit at the end of the season.

WINNING PERCENTAGE
--> The obvious of all the stats. The better your winning percentage, the more money you make. Anything above .510 means you're making money. Anything better than .550 is phenomenal. Conversely, you need to hit some excellent parlays to be winning money if you're under .485 or so. And if you're below .460, you probably shouldn't even do this for fun for fear of complete embarrassment.

1. JLE (77-51) .601 (1st in points, 718)
2. JRap (63-51) .553 (6th in points, 564)
3. MLC (69-59) .539 (2nd in points, 631)
4. Lopes (67-61) .523 (3rd in points, 625)
5. Gene Pool (64-64) .500 (5th in points, 584)
6. LR (62-66) .484 (4th in points, 600)
7. WWB (57-71) .475 (tied for 9th in points, 539)
8. DJW (59-69) .461 (7th in points, 553)
9. (tie) PVW (tied for 9th in points, 539),
   Me (58-70) .453 (last in points, 528)
10. KVP (56-72) .438 (8th in points, 540)

In our point system we're using on CBS, where you rank your picks and get more points for the ones each picker deems more important (16 points for top-rated game, 15 for second and so on), the standings are pretty close to form, except for JRap, who didn't turn in his picks one week.

It also shows that the sports copy desk doesn't always do the best job of picking with a composite record of 631-634, which isn't horrible with a .499 winning percentage, but it won't win anyone any money, either.

POINTS PER WIN
--> This is the stat I figured matters most ... or right up there, assuming you can get your percentage above the .500 mark. The higher your points-per-win, the more value you're getting and the less number of wins you need. (That's assuming you're not betting on all 13 to 16 games every week, which, of course, I am not.)

This stat, surprisingly, does not go according to standings. In fact, it's all over the place. I suspect that will change a bit by the end of the season, especially if JLE comes back to the pack a bit and the standings are tight.

1. LR 9.68 points per win
2. KVP 9.64
3. WWB 9.34
4. DJW 9.37
5. Lopes 9.33
6. JLE 9.32
7. PVW 9.29
8. MLC 9.14
9. Gene Pool 9.13
10. Me 9.10
11. JRap 8.96

This means that LR gets the most value out of his correct picks, but in all, everyone seems to be pretty tight.

UNDERDOG WINNERS
--> An underrated stat, which I feel, I can turn a good season of picking into a great one. This is how I made money last year, parlaying underdogs into 4 to 6 times my original bet, depending on the depth of the dog.

It's also a spot where I haven't fared as well this season. In looking at past dog winners, I noticed a pattern. Since we started this in Week 2, at least six dogs have won each week. That means that I must do a better job of, A) making sure I have at least six dogs in my picks, and B) studying which ones are the right ones.

Let's go player by player and figure out if dogs are helping or hurting them:

JLE: Not only has she done an unbelievable job with a .601 winning percentage and an 87-point lead, but she's fared even better with underdog winners. Her worst week (record-wise) was the first, going 3-5. Since then, she's 38-19 picking underdog winners. That is almost unheard of. Too bad she's not spending the fall in Vegas. One look at these numbers, and it's no surprise she's dominating the pick 'em.
--> 41-24 (.631, 1st); 351 points (1st); .489 pct of points come from dogs (2nd)

MLC: If he had just a little more luck here, he'd be ginving JLE a run for her money. Instead, MLC loooves the favorites, and even when he does get the dog right, he doesn't get many points from them. That's because he doesn't trust the dogs.
--> 27-38 (.415, 6th); 194 points (6th); .307 pct of points from dogs (6th)

Lopes: It's amazing he's in third place with his absolute fear of canines. He doesn't pick many of them, and when he does (except for last week, that is), they are usually wrong. Last week's 5-2 record in dog-winner games helped out a good bit. It accounted for one-third of all the points Lopes has received from mutts this year.
--> 20-45 (.307, tied 8th); 188 points (7th); .301 pct of points from dogs (7th)

LR: A hot start and a decent last couple of weeks says Mr. Reilly isn't afraid to go out on a limb. Unlike Lopes and MLC, dogs are the reason why LR remains in the chase for second place. The first week and last week are good for about 40 percent of his total, so a little consistency wouldn't hurt.
--> 31-34 (.477, 3rd); 265 points (3rd); .442 pct of ponts from dogs (3rd)

Gene Pool: Solid and consistent, and second only to JLE in this category. He has three weeks with 47 points or more coming from dogs. I, conversely, have four weeks where I scored less than 47 points overall. TGP has just two weeks below .500 in picking dog winners. Excellent.
--> 36-29 (.554, 2nd); 311 points (2nd); .533 pct of points from dogs (1st)

THE REST
JRap: 21-29 (.323, 7th); 138 points (10th); .247 pct of points from dogs (10th)
DJW: 29-34 (.446, 4th); 238 points (4th); .427 pct of points from dogs (4th)
KVP: 11-54 (.169, 11th); 102 points (11th); .189 pct of points from dogs (11th)
WWB: 18-47 (.277, 10th); 139 points (9th); .259 pct of points from dogs (9th)
PVW: 20-45 (.308, tied 8th); 141 points (8th); .262 pct of points from dogs (8th)
Me: 28-35 (.431, 5th); 215 points (5th); .407 pct of points from dogs (5th)

We'll see if all this research pays off, as I looked for trends and try to use them to my advantage with this week's picks. Let's hope this waste of time with solid boredom comes to good use.