Week 11 NFL picks

Well, it was back to bottom-feeding last week. Way, way at the bottom. As in last place. How could it be so damned rank after the ungodly start. Let's don't ask questions; let's change our philosophy. This week, we're going to back off of feelings and be a little more analytical. Hell, it can't get any worse (although we started the week with a 15-point miss ... damned Belicheat).

If it works, we'll go explain the how later. If it doesn't, we'll forget we ever tried the new formula. We'll also try to forget this season and glad I didn't wager this season like I did last, or all that money I won in '07 would be gone, gone, gone.

Here we go ...

(16 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-5.5 over KANSAS CITY
--> Speaking of different, if we're going to buck the rules, let's buck 'em. Buck their asses. The Saints at the top? Purely analytical, I assure you. The Saints are a team of sheer and utter inconsistency. They stink it up one week and look like world-beaters the next. This is the next, and we'll give 'em a shot.
Last week: Patriots (-4.5) 20, Bills 10 (Buffalo becoming the team to pick against)

(15 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-2.5 over NY JETS
--> Did I ever mention how much I think the NFL's overtime rules are asinine? What a waste of a comeback.
Last week: Chargers 20, Chiefs (+14.5) 19 (Top two right for a change!)

(14 points) BALTIMORE plus-6.5 over NY GIANTS
--> Everybody and their grammaw are on the Giants' bandwagon, while the Ravens have been an excellent underdog pick all season long, including last week, when they won outright by 28 as a dog. While I don't expect those results two weeks in a row, I do expect their defense to keep it real close.
Last week: Falcons 34, Saints (E) 20 (I knew better)

(13 points) SEATTLE plus-2.5 over ARIZONA
--> Another dog that has fared much better, and this week features the return of Matt Hasselbeck. The Cardinals are on a high after beating a bad football team, and needing help to do it. While the Desert Beakmen have had flashes of being good, more ofthen than not, they've been mediocre. On the road in a division game won't be good enough this week.
Last week: Cardinals (-9.5) 29, 49ers 24 (If only I felt that way about Arizona last week)

(12 points) TAMPA BAY minus-3.5 over MINNESOTA
--> The one thing I am sticking to from previous weeks is picking NFC South teams at home. Not only do they usually win, but they usually win big. And unlike dumb moves in the past this season, I'm going to do my best to stop bucking trends.
Last week: Dolphins (-8.5) 21, Seahawks 19 (Did I really allow Miami to give that many points?)

(11 points) CAROLINA minus-13.5 over DETROIT
--> While the Lions have been a good choice against the spread the past few weeks, I go back to what I said about Tampa Bay. NFC South teams usually win handily at home this year, except the Saints, as we all know. As the Panthers begin their stretch for the division title, they need to start winning a little more convincingly.
Last week: Colts 24, Steelers (E) 20 (Now I pick against Indy?)

(10 points) PHILADELPHIA minus-9.5 over CINCINNATI
--> Speaking of trends, if there's one thing the Eagles can do, it's beat up on a terrible opponent. Also, they're getting into must-win territory with the NFC East so bunched up after New York. Expect them to take out their frustrations on soon-to-be-fired Marvin Lewis and the Bengal Cubs.
Last week: Giants (+2.5) 36, Eagles 31 (Yeah, I really gave points to the G-Men)

(9 points) ATLANTA minus-5.5 over DENVER
--> I have no more faith in the Broncos, and besides, I don't think I am going against Jay Cutler in any fantasy football league, so he'll wait to have a five-touchdown game until next week. The Falcons have made me a believer, especially when they're at home. And the Georgia Dome will be rockin this week (as much as 40,000 lame-asses can rock, anyway).
Last week: Broncos 34, Browns (-2.5) 30 (Jekyll and Hyde Brownies ...)

(8 points) PITTSBURGH minus-3.5 over SAN DIEGO
--> LT's whining about the Chargers' lack of running game -- Whose fault is that? -- and they're dangerously close to being an afterthought in the playoffs discussion. Meanwhile, the Steelers haven't played back-to-back bad games yet this season, and I don't expect it to start now. Also, remember what we said a few weeks ago about teams who had to go cross country? It doesn't usually work out too well.
Last week: Ravens (+1.5) 41, Texans 13 (I love the no-doubters)

(7 points) DALLAS minus-1.5 over WASHINGTON
--> The rare instance I choose to break the road-division favorite rule. I have said often how mediocre I think the Skins are, while the 'Boys should get a boost from the return of Romo. If they don't, Mr. Phillips will be shown the door, possibly as soon as this week. This is also a game where the bookies should make lots of dough, and I love to pick the side less traveled in those games.
Last week: Jets 47, Rams (+7.5) 3 (Note to self: It's Jim Haslett, dummy)

(6 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-7.5 over HOUSTON
--> This is more for the same reason why I picked the Colts two weeks ago. The Texans have started to play like the Texans, and Peyton is starting to look like pre-surgery Peyton. All this and they're back at home? Chalk it up.
Last week: Vikings 28, Packers (+2.5) 27 (Two weeks in a row the Pack lose, but cover ... I got something right)

(5 points) ST. LOUIS plus-5.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
--> OK, so I never learn to stay away from the Real Men of Genius ... especially after I made that nice, neat note to myself. Oh well. The thinking here is that the Niners are going to respond one of two ways after last week's debacle. They'll either win in a rout or get routed. I like the latter because I'm not sure Singletary has yet figured out how to keep Martz from calling bad plays.
Last week: Titans 21, Bears (+2.5) 14 (Yep, still don't believe in dem Titans ... hard, hard head)

(4 points) CHICAGO plus-4.5 over GREEN BAY
--> The Pack has done a good job covering as a dog, but that's because they've been in so many close games. I don't think that will change this week, which means it's Chicago who covers this one.
Last week: Jaguars 38, Lions (+7.5) 14 (Their string of better play had to end sometime)

(3 points) CLEVELAND plus-5.5 over BUFFALO
--> I just can't let the Bills give any team points with as bad as they've been. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention (until now) how pissed I am at Jauron for not using Marshawn Lynch enough. Maybe he'll realize when Mojo was scoring, the Bills were winning. We'll see.
Last week: Panthers 17, Raiders (+9.5) 6 (Damned meaningless field goal)

(2 points) TENNESSEE minus-2.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> So I wait until I can break by road-division rule to pick the Titans. I guess I was just waiting for the right time to jinx them.
Last week: No pick

(1 point) OAKLAND plus-10.5 over MIAMI
--> Don't think the Dolphins should give double digits to anyone, and the Raiders have played better on the road than they have at home. Plus, it's another instance, I believe, of everyone else loving Miami. My kind of game.
Last week: No pick

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 10: 4-10, 45 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 58-70 (.453), 528 points (59 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE 718, MLC 631, Lopes 625, LR 600, Gene Pool 584, JRap 564, DJW 553, KVP (won week, 107) 540, WWB 539, PVW 539, Me 528