Week 8 NFL picks

Can we just skip the idle chit-chat about just how bad last week was? A couple of things I will say real quick, though. First, there is no truth to the rumor that I let my dog, Reggie Bush, make my picks last week. Second, there is truth to the rumor that I wish I let my dog, Reggie Bush, make my picks last week.

Let's just move on ...

(16 points) CAROLINA minus-4.5 over ARIZONA
--> The entire NFC South has proved to be beasts at home. With their bye coming next week and then two easy ones, the Panthers should let loose with this one. Also, there's no one to overlook. The Cardinals have been up and down, but they have yet to face a defense like this one this season.
Last week: Rams 34, Cowboys (-6.5) 14 (The bookies were laughing, so was anyone who read this dumb blog last week)

(15 points) WASHINGTON minus-7.5 over DETROIT
--> The Redskins have struggled against bad teams the past two weeks, losing both ATS and straight up against the Rams two weeks ago. If they want to be considered a legitimate contender, they'll have to show bettors (more to prove to themselves) something here. The Lions have played better since firing Matt Millen, but that's wearing off on this really bad, possibly 0-and-16-in-their-future team. Expect a big day from Jason Campbell and Santana Moss against a porous secondary.
Last week: Bills 23, Chargers (-.5) 14 (That's what I get for picking against my preseason surprise)

(14 points) NY JETS minus-12.5 over KANSAS CITY
--> What do you do after an awful week of prognosticating? Take the safe route and go with a bunch of favorites. That's a lot of points to give up against any NFL team, but I like fair-to-good teams at home after an upset loss on the road. Especially against the in-figthing Chiefs.
Last week: Panthers 30, Saints (+3.5) 7 (Note to self: Don't pick against NFC South home teams in a division game ever again this season. Especially when the Saints are involved.)

(13 points) JACKSONVILLE minus-6.5 over CLEVELAND
--> In sticking with the favorites theme ... The Browns defense has played over their heads the past two weeks, including last week when their offense was awful. The Dawg Pound is beginning to call for Brady Quinn, and they might get their wish with one more bad performance from Derek Anderson. Meanwhile, time to turn it on for what could be the AFC South's best team when all is said is done. (Yes, I know Tennessee is still undefeated. See below.)
Last week: Titans 34, Chiefs (+7.5) 10 (I'm not sure why I'm not sold on the Titans)

(12 points) SAN FRANCISCO minus-4.5 over SEATTLE
--> Without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are bad. Real bad. Hell, even with him they're not all that good. Look for the Niners to be fired up in Mike Singletary's first game as coach. One thing for sure is that they will be intense.
Last week: Ravens 27, Dolphins (-2.5) 13 (I kinew better than to let Miami give points)

(11 points) INDIANAPOLIS plus-3.5 over TENNESSEE
--> Here I go going against another one of my rules (don't bet against a team with a streak of three or more). And another thing, this is really the last week I am on the Colts bandwagon if they don't show me something here. Either Peyton comes alive here, or this team truly is in trouble.
Last week: Steelers 33, Bengals (+9.5) 10 (Wow, I wasn't even close on most of these)

(10 points) BUFFALO minus-1.5 over MIAMI
--> Breaking another rule in consecutive picks (don't take road-division favorite). I wasn't about to pick against the Bills in consecutive weeks. Especially not here, where the Dolphins looked like the real Dolphins last week. I would suspect, though, that this one will be low scoring. Very low scoring.
Last week: Patriots 41, Broncos (+3.5) 7 (In fact, I think this was my worst week of picking EVER)

(9 points) SAN DIEGO minus-2.5 over NEW ORLEANS
--> The Saints are days away from unraveling at the seams, it would appear. Want some more bad signs for Brees and the Boys? They have been bad on the road, and THIS IS a road game, no matter what the NFL says. The Chargers, meanwhile, haven't lost often the past three seasons against teams with losing records.
Last week: Giants 29, 49ers (10.5) 17 (It's pretty sad when you're happy about the ones you almost got right)

(8 points) PITTSBURGH minus-2.5 over NY GIANTS
--> This could be one of the most physical games of the season so far. The offensive front of the Steelers has come alive after a dreadful start. Expect that to come in big, as I look for Big Ben to throw a little more than he has been, especially short passes to Miller and Ward. The Giants, meanwhile, still haven't proved that they are the NFC's dominant team.
Last week: Bears 48 (-3.5), Vikings 41 (Hooray, pop the champagne)

(7 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-7.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> In this weird season, logic says you should pick against the Patriots after they looked so good last week. But there's no way the Real Men of Genius keep this up, especially with Belicheat on the other side. That just doesn't seem fair.
Last week: Redskins (-7.5) 14, Browns 11 (I'm starting to think Washington played over their heads in those two big road wins. Also think Dallas and Philly just weren't that good.)

(6 points) ATLANTA plus-8.5 over PHILADELPHIA
--> Don't understand the spread here. The Falcons are a little lucky to be 4-2, but nonetheless, the Eagles have been anything but impressive. While I would be surprised if Atlanta pulls off another one, Mike Smith seems to have his team well-prepared every week, and I would be surprised if they get blown out.
Last week: Packers 34, Colts (+.5) 14 (Can you say over the hill? It's close.)

(5 points) HOUSTON minus-9.5 over CINCINNATI
--> I am going back to my original assessment that the Texans are a good football team, especially defensively. I can almost forget how much a hurricane can affect the play of a decent squad. I can't forget, though, how many troubles the Bengals have had and just how close a good coach is to being fired.
Last week: Buccaneers (-10.5) 20, Seahawks 10 (Meaningless late scores should count LOL)

(4 points) DALLAS minus-2.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> This pick goes against all of my better judgment, but I simply cannot believe the Cowpokes are poor, make that porous. Meanwhile, the Bucs have done most of their damage at home. It's sort of sick, but Wade Phillips' job really is at stake with the quick-trigger Jerry Jones watching. Look for a big rebound with a veteran under center and a beast named Marion Barber carrying the load.
Last week: Raiders (+3.5) 16, Jets 13 (This was really the only good pick I had last week)

(3 points) OAKLAND minus-6.5 over BALTIMORE
--> Another one that doesn't make any sense, but I thought I made sense last week. Oh well, it seems as if the Raiders are rejuvenated with Cable calling the shots. Sure, it won't last, but I give it more than a week.
Last week: Texans 28, Lions (+8.5) 21 (Yay, who cares?)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 7: 15 points, 3-11
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 43-43 (.500), 376 points (63 points per week)

TP sports pool standings: JLE (won week, 95) 477, MLC 477, Lopes 405, LR 395, WWB 391, PVW 385, Me 376, Gene Pool 367, KVP 337, JRap 335, DJW 330