NFL Week 7 picks

Good news for me last week was that I picked nine games right. Bad news was that most of them were the lower-point games. Funny thing is I'm not quite sure why I didn't move my lower picks up. I loved the underdogs at the bottom: St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland. Can't let them damned Tampa Bay Rays fans stay too far ahead of me. I think I have a good batch this week, and we're ready to move back up near the top.

Here we go:

(16 points) DALLAS minus-6.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> Romo? No Romo? That is the question. The answer is that it doesn't matter. If the Cowboys are to remain an elite team, they need to not just win, but win big. Certainly by more than a touchdown over the NFC's second-worst team. Let's see what Jim Haslett, new defensive coordinator Rick Venturi and the rest of the Real Men of Genius have in store for Marion Barber and T.O.
Last week: Falcons 22, Bears (-2.5) 20 (Would've lost anyway, but how do you let that happen?)

(15 points) SAN DIEGO plus-.5 over BUFFALO
--> Last week's blowout was no fluke for the Chargers, while neither was the Bills big loss two weeks ago at Arizona. San Diego is set to go on a roll (bad news for Saints fans), and lay claim to being one of the AFC's best. With the debacle of the first two weeks behind them, if they're gonna do that, they need to start by beating the mediocre on the road.
Last week: Texans (-2.5) 29, Dolphins 28 (Can a brother get a damned 2-point conversion?)

(14 points) NEW ORLEANS plus-3.5 over CAROLINA
--> It's a very similar situation as last week for the Saints. Although it's not quite as desperate, they're almost in a must-win again. This ridiculous road trip doesn't get easier until after the bye week, and they can't afford to go into it with a sub. 500 record. The run defense will have to be as stellar as they've been the past two weeks, while plenty is on Drew Brees' shoulders with Reggie Bush knicked up. That's a good thing.
Last week: Cardinals 30, Cowboys (-5.5) 27, OT (This parity crap is for the birds)

(13 points) KANSAS CITY plus-7.5 over TENNESSEE
--> One of those hunches (I usually get these right) that the Chiefs are fighting mad and have had a good week of practice. So what if the Titans are 5-0? Who have they beat? I'm telling you it's a facade, and look for the Chiefs to be more relaxed knowing the Larry Johnson situation ahead of time. It wouldn't surprise me at all if KC won straight up.
Last week: Packers (+2.5) 27, Seahawks 17 (Don't think the Seabags will be giving too many teams points the rest of the year)

(12 points) MIAMI minus-2.5 over BALTIMORE
--> I don't remember the last time the Dolphins were favored over anyone -- anywhere. But there's a reason. This team now has earned my respect with their above-average defense and innovating play-calling. Meanwhile, the Ravens' bubble sort of burst last week in a crushing rout at the hands of the aging Colts. If Miami has something to prove, here's their chance.
Last week: Eagles 40, 49ers (+4.5) 26 (choke, choke)

(11 points) CINCINNATI plus-9.5 over PITTSBURGH
--> No one denies the Bungles are a bad football team, but the Steelers are still a little banged up, even on a week coming off their bye. You all should know my rule by now that states you better be damned sure if you pick a road-division favorite. And with the Hekyll and Jekyll Steelers, how could you possibly be certain?
Last week: Bucs (-1.5) 27, Panthers 3 (Wow, didn't think it would be that easy)

(10 points) DENVER plus-3.5 over NEW ENGLAND
--> I don't know what the hell to think about the Patriots. I know they're not as bad as they played in last week's loss, but my opinion on them has dropped big time in the past few weeks. I know Tom Brady's gone, but does Matt Cassel realize he has Randy Moss? One thing I do know is the Broncos and Shanahan -- even though I can't stand him -- are good. Usually, when excellent coaches go up against each other, the better TEAM wins. And I think Denver is the better team.
Last week: Jets (-6.5) 26, Bengals 14 (Thomas Jones 3 TDs? Really? ... Really?)

(9 points) SAN FRANCISCO plus-10.5 over NY GIANTS
--> Again, if you've read my previous picks blogs, you know I don't think the G-Men should be laying a lot of points to anyone. They proved why last week. Still, I am not in love with this pick for the simple reason of not liking to pick a team that has to travel cross-country against one that is licking its wounds. I love the over, and if this spread was 9.5, I might have picked New York.
Last week: Saints (-7.5) 34, Raiders 3 (If it weren't the Saints, I'd have had this one at the top)

(8 points) CHICAGO minus-3.5 over MINNESOTA
--> The Vkings have had more than their share of really good luck the past two weeks, while Lovie Smith suffered from a brain fart last week at Atlanta. God, I hate the squib kick. What usually happens when a good coach makes a stupid mistake? They come back the next week and pound a mediocre (at best) team into oblivion. Bears might win by three touchdowns.
Last week: Chargers 30, Patriots (+5.5) 10 (Obviously, I have the Belicheats too high on my power rankings)

(7 points) WASHINGTON minus-7.5 over CLEVELAND
--> This is the game that determines whether the Redskins are a playoff contender or those two road division wins were a fluke. If they're for real, they'll get their act together after a major letdown last week against the Real Genuises and wallop a bad AFC team that is coming off a tremendous high. If they're not, they'll flop and be in a dogfight all afternoon. I think the Z(orn)-men are for real.
Last week: Colts (-4.5) 31, Ravens 3 (Is this the kick-start for the Horseshoe Heads?)

(6 points) INDIANAPOLIS minus-.5 over GREEN BAY
--> Have I picked against the Colts this season? Come to think about it, I don't think I have picked against the Packers, either. Well, something's got to give. You know how I said earlier in the season I was almost ready to jump off the Colts bandwagon? I'm still real close, and I think this game will tell me just how good -- or not so good -- they are.
Last week: Jaguars (+3.5) 24, Broncos 17 (We shoulda had Del Rio 10 years ago ... OK, 20 years ago then)

(5 points) TAMPA BAY minus-10.5 over SEATTLE
--> This one goes back to my bad-team-headed-cross-country-to-play-a-good-team rule. The Seahawks have been absolutely decimated by injuries, and Seneca Wallace/Charlie Frye and Julius Jones just aren't gonna cut it against this defense. I don't expect the Bucs to put up all that many points, but the Seahawks might not score at all. My predic is a 17-0 final.
Last week: Rams (+13.5) 19, Redskins 17 (I wanna just pat myself on the back so bad ... I think I will)

(4 points) OAKLAND plus-3.5 over NY JETS
--> Ahh, memories of the Heidi game when I was about four months old. Why am I picking the Raiders, you ask? Because I am still not convinced Brett Favre changed the Jets that much. Yes, I realize Oakland is a bad team, but for some reason, bad teams have played well at home so far this year. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
Last week: Browns (+7.5) 35, Giants 14 (Leave dem sleepin dogs alone, ruff ruff)

(3 points) DETROIT plus-8.5 over HOUSTON
--> I think I'm picking the Lions more on sympathy than I am on logic. They should have won straight up last week. The Texans shold have lost. Oh, and there's one more reason that doesn't make any sense. I simply HATE the city of Houston, and I have never been to Detroit. Advantage Lions.
Last week: Vikings 12, Lions (+13.5) 10 (You can see when I pick the Lions, I have tons of confidence)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 6: 68 points, 9-5
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 40-32 (.556), 361 (72 points per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: MLC 402, JLE 382, Lopes 373, Me 361, LR 357 (won week, 80), JRap 335, Gene Pool 327, PVW 318, WWB 305, KVP 292, DJW 272