Week 14 NFL picks

Well, we're on a roll boys and girls. The ghost of Mr. Frost is shining down on me as the weather turns a little more, er, Frosty. Two straight winning weeks and three out of four. Can we continue the trend upward toward the middle of the pack in the TP Pool?

Hang on for all the exciting developments. OK, well maybe not exciting, but interesting, maybe? OK, not even interesting, but I'm striving toward personal happiness.

Before I start with the picks, I would like to give my condolences to the family of the Pook's Flukes. Pappa Pook passed away last weekend, and the lovable loser just wants the Flukes to know we're thinkin about ya.

On with the picks ...

(16 points) CAROLINA minus-2.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> Part of our resurgence stems from doing well with the top pick. As of late, we've tried to find games that no one else liked, and that seemed to work. No such pick this week, as to me, this is as close to a sure thing as you can get. NFC South teams have been unbelievably great at home. Despite a 9-3 overall record, the Bucs have been tepid, at best, on the road. We're going to stick with trends and tll thinks the Panthers are ready to avenge a rout at The Pirate Ship a few weeks ago.
Last week: Texans (-2.5) 30, Jaguars 17 (We luvvvv Monday night)

(15 points) NEW ORLEANS minus-2.5 over ATLANTA
--> Expecting a mixed bag of picks on this one, and we're gonna continue with the home team for the fourth straight week. Since we love trends, we'll stick with the same one from our 16-point bonanza. Even the Saints do well at home, and I still believe the NFC South won't have a losing team. If that is to happen, the boys in black and gold pretty much must take this one.
Last week: 49ers 10, Bills (-6.5) 3 (Buffalo has become real bad real quick)

(14 points) CLEVELAND plus-13.5 over TENNESSEE
--> I haven't done all too well taking double-digit underdogs this year, but I like three of them this week. The Titans had their feast at Detroit last week for Thanksgiving, and who wouldn't take the Brownies lightly? They're down to their third-string quarterback, Jamal Lewis is about as fast as me, and Braylon Edwards looks like he goes on the field after eating a tub of buttered popcorn. But their defense has been stout, and the Lake Erie Warriors should keep it close.
Last week: Falcons 22, Chargers (-5.5) 16 (So much for the bookies)

(13 points) CINCINNATI plus-13.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
--> OK, this one makes no sense. That's why I like it. Remember last week's explanation about me making no sense so that's why I understand things that don't make any sense? If you understand that, you'll get that just because this is completely senseless, it makes perfect sense.
Last week: Chiefs (+2.5) 20, Raiders 13 (No way JaMarcus could pull two straight wins out of his bag)

(12 points) GREEN BAY minus-5.5 over HOUSTON
--> Goes back to what we said last week. The Texans are pretty solid at home, not so solid on the road. And one thing we know for sure is water will be solid at Lambeau this weekend, as we get just two weeks away from the official start of winter. The Pack is pissed, and I look for a good, underachieving team to take control early in this one.
Last week: Vikings (-2.5) 34, Bears 14 (Starting to love division home teams; I need to look up that stat)

(11 points) SEATTLE plus-4.5 over NEW ENGLAND
--> Speaking of not making sense. I'd like to go back to my rule of teams who have to go cross-country not usually playing very well, especially after a tough game (Belicheats routed by Pittsburgh last week). The Patriots are in a must-win, but the Seahawks have played better at home with Hasselbeck back in the fold. We'll buck the trend, and we figure we're the only one with this one.
Last week: Broncos (+7.5) 34, Jets 17 (Spread just didn't make sense to me)

(10 points) SAN FRANCISCO plus-3.5 over NY JETS
--> Another spread that makes no sense to me. Why aren't the Niners getting a touchdown here? So when the bookies are trying to get people to jump one way, I like to jump the other. And more times than not, that's the right way to go.
Last week: Colts 10, Browns (+4.5) 6 (See above and bookies and jumping)

(9 points) MIAMI plus-1.5 over BUFFALO
--> The Bills have been horrible lately, and even horribler against division teams, home or away. The Dolphins have rightfully been mentioned among serious playoff contenders. If they are to continue to be in that conversation, they HAVE to win this week. And they will.
Last week: Titans 47, Lions (+10.5) 10 (Gobble, gobble. What a turkey.)

(8 points) OAKLAND plus-9.5 over SAN DIEGO (Thurs.)
--> This is more a case of a 4-8 team giving a 3-9 team almost 10 points. Shouldn't happen. We all know the Chargers have been underachievers, but that doesn't justify this spread. Also, the Raiders seem to do well just about every other week against the spread. This is the other week, and we like the black and silver.
Last week: Ravens 34, Bengals (+7.5) 3 (The real Bungles showed up)

(7 points) CHICAGO minus-3.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> I don't think the Bears are very good, but I have lost all confidence in the Jags. They seem to be falling apart, and couldn't move very well against the Texans. The Bears should have enough to stop the Jax running game. Oh, and if Chicago loses, they're toast. If Jacksonville loses, who cares?
Last week: Panthers 35, Packers (-2.5) 31 (Choking bastards)

(6 points) DETROIT plus-9.5 over MINNESOTA
--> Going back to division home teams, especially ones as big home dogs. You heard it here first: Don't be surprised if this is the week the laughable Lions get their first W, although I tend to believe it's going to come in Week 16 against you-know-who.
Last week: Steelers (E) 33, Patriots 10 (I probably would have taken New England if you gave me 22)

(5 points) NY GIANTS minus-7.5 over PHILADELPHIA
--> So the Eagles had a good week to fool everyone into thinking they're going to get back in the wild-card hunt. The G-Men, meanwhile, are coming off a week of inner turmoil, and will take out their frustrations on an opponent which has had quite a bit of turmoil of their own.
Last week: Dolphins (-7.5) 16, Rams 12 (Noowww the Geniuses play defense)

(4 points) PITTSBURGH minus-2.5 over DALLAS
--> The Cowboys have been wonderful since Romo has comeback, but it's been against mediocre (at best) teams. The Steelers have had -- by far -- the toughest schedule in football. Big Ben seems to be at his best at home in bad weather. Forecast: Snow flurries and temps in the upper-20s. Advantage Pittsburgh.
Last week: Giants (-3.5) 23, Redskins 7 (Stayin on the G-Men bandwagon the rest of the season)

(3 points) WASHINGTON plus-5.5 over BALTIMORE
--> The Ravens have been playing over their heads, of course, they've also been playing some pretty bad teams. The Skinsies, meanwhile, haven't had a solid game in about six weeks. I think this ends up a battle of field goals, and while I like Stover over Suisham, a 16-13 Baltimore win means pick the DC boys.
Last week: Bucs 23, Saints (+3.5) 20 (Should left em higher)

(2 points) KANSAS CITY plus-8.5 over DENVER
--> The Chiefs have been a pretty solid dog this year, while Denver is all over the place. One week good, one week pathetic, one week great, then they suck again. Well, they were excellent last week, which means Let-Down City.
Last week: Cowboys 34, Seahawks (+12.5) 9 (I hope they all choked on their turkey)

(1 point) ST. LOUIS plus-13.5 over ARIZONA
--> Sorry, I just can't let the Cardinals give anyone two touchdowns. The problem with the Rams is it's either real, real close or it's a blowout. I'm thinkin take the under and the Geniuses. Besides, I think the Beakmen my drag out clinching the NFC West for another week.
Last week: Eagles (-2.5) 48, Cardinals 20

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 13: 9-7, 76 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 82-94 (.466), 732 points (61 per week)

TP Sports Pool standings: JLE 964, MLC 816, LR 806, Lopes 785, Gene Pool 759, WWB 749, Me 732, JRap 731, DJW 725, PVW 717, KVP (won week, 85) 712