Week 17 NFL picks

It's time for the final regular-season installment of tll's Fall Giveaway. As in, if you picked against me all season long, you had one hell of a Christmas. Though, in my never-give-up mantra, I tried to look back and see what worked best. After (way too much) reflection, I decided it was the gimmicks. Other then the first two weeks, when I obviously was just plain lucky in starting 22-9, it was the picks when I threw caution into the wind and left my heart aside.

This week, my peeps, I have decided that my thoughts and heart would have nothing to do with these last picks. Instead, I created a formula in which to make these last 16 beauties. Who knows? If it is really good -- or really bad -- I can market it in a way for others to make money off my (mis)fortunes.

It's fairly simple, but tedious. I went back and checked the records against the spread (except Week 1, when we didn't pick because of Goooostav) for all 32 teams. I did it at home, away and their last six games. Depending on whether the team was home or away this week, they received a power point for a win at home (if they are on the road this week), two points for a win on the road and three points for a win at any site in their last six games. I also deducted a point if the team was in a must-win situation or if they already have clinched their position.

Some interesting tidbits before we start ... The two teams with the highest power ratings? The Saints and Falcons -- both at 29. The lowest? Jacksonville (10), Denver (12), Washington (12) and St. Louis (12). The best division? The NFC South -- all four teams are .500 or better against the spread. The worst? There are three. The AFC West, AFC East and NFC North have all of its teams at .500 or below.

There are more interesting nuggets, but I don't want to bore you all to death, as I am fairly certain just about everyone but The Gene Pool already has stopped reading. Actually, this is probably a great time to talk bad about my friends, since I am sure no one is reading. But then, that would limit me to the people whom TGP doesn't know, and that would take much of the fun out of it.

Lastly, before I did this nonsensical research, I made picks and will list them to show whether logic or the gut is smarter. (I think I know the answer already.) And I'm looking to go 16-0 so I can finish .500 for the season.

So here we go ...

(16 points) BALTIMORE minus-12.5 over JACKSONVILLE
--> One of the best teams ATS against one of the worst. The Jags likely are the most disappointing teams in 2008, while the Ravens and Joe Flacco have been one of the biggest surprises. Look for Baltimore to use this game as a springboard into the playoffs.
What I would have picked: Saints plus-3.5 over Panthers
Last week: Saints (-6.5) 42, Lions 7 (Black & Gold loves playing against bad teams)

(15 points) ATLANTA minus-14.5 over ST. LOUIS
--> One of the worst things I see about this method is having two double-digit favs at the top. But logic dictates the Falcons still have something to prove, and with a shot at the No. 2 seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs, look for Michael Turner to run roughshod over the Real Men of Genius' defense.
What I would have picked: Broncos plus-7.5 over Chargers
Last week: Chargers 41, Bucs (-3.5) 24 (Who can figure out the Chargers?)

(14 points) NEW ORLEANS plus-3.5 over CAROLINA
--> Even my head knows that NFC South teams are undefeated this year STRAIGHT UP against division opponents. So getting points seems to be a treat for the Saints here. Another interesting note here is that the Bless You Boys are 5-1 ATS in the Dome (really, 6-1 since they won in Week 1 against the Bucs), and are one of the bookies' biggest nightmares. The majority of the betting world is going with the Panthers, and I think they'll lose some moulah.
What I would have picked: Chiefs plus-2.5 over Bengals
Last week: Bears (-3.5) 20, Packers 17 (The ole halfa point loss, grrrr)

(13 points) TENNESSEE minus-2.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
--> Don't want to sell you against this one, but this goes against all my rules. Logic dictates, though, that the Titans have been the stronger pick ATS, including a 6-0 (and 8-1) start. Realistically, although both teams have clinched their playoff seed and don't care all that much, the Colts have more to proove. But of course my personal logic has been pretty screwy this season, so who knows?
What I would have picked: (Coincidentally) Colts plus-2.5 over Titans
Last week: Raiders 27, Texans (-6.5) 13 (Seriously, who thought Oakland would win straight up? Liar.)

(12 points) NY GIANTS plus-6.5 over MINNESOTA
--> Clinched home field or didn't clinch. I could care less. The Giants GETTING points here? Don't care the circumstances, this is plain ole overcompensation. One thing for sure, Tom Coughlin is not going to let his team look like a bunch of dopes heading into the playoffs. He certainly remembers the winning run he needed for momentum last season. P.S. The Giants have the best record in the NFC ATS at 10-4. The Vikes are 6-8, including a sub-.500 record at home.
What I would have picked: Packers minus-9.5 over Lions
Last week: Giants (-2.5) 34, Panthers 28, OT (OK, the TD was overkill, but so what)

(11 points) SAN FRANCISCO minus-2.5 over WASHINGTON
--> Another quirk in this system is that you are trusting the linesmakers are remaining consistent and that their lines are correct. Not sure I wouldn't have made the Skinsies a slight fav here, or at leats made it even. Still, I think Singletary has done a good job, and good coaching usually beats poor coaching, and Jim Zorn has self-proclaimed that he's the worst coach in the country.
What I would have picked: Giants plus-6.5 over Vikings
Last week: Titans (+1.5) 31, Steelers 14 (Told ya that line was outta whack)

(10 points) SEATTLE plus-5.5 over ARIZONA
--> The Seabags wanna win Holmgren's last game. The Cardinals seem to have packed it in a few weeks ago. Also, Seattle is 4-2 in its last six games ATS, while Arizona is 2-4, in case you needed more proof that the Cards' bird is cooked. Love Seattle straight up.
What I would have picked: Bucs minus-13.5 over Raiders
Last week: Patriots (-7.5) 47, Cardinals 7 (One and done for Desert Beakmen next week)

(9 points) HOUSTON minus-2.5 over CHICAGO
--> Bears got lucky last week to remain alive, but the Texans have been too tough the past few weeks to overcome. After an 0-5 start ATS, Houston has come alive and is 6-3 as of late. The Bears are a model of mediocrity -- 4-4 at home ATS, 3-3 on the road and 3-3 in their last six games. Boooring.
What I would have picked: Seahawks plus-5.5 over Cardinals
Last week: Bengals 14, Browns (-2.5) 0 (Were Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn THAT important?)

(8 points) SAN DIEGO minus-7.5 over DENVER
--> Not that the Chargers have been a solid pick this season, but the Broncos have been just plain awful, going 4-10 ATS. Don't jump out there and bet the rent, though, as Denver is 3-3 on the road. If they make the playoffs, their first game will be at home, where they are 1-7 ATS. All in all, this spread seems awful high, as the bookies have been in love with San Diego all season, and I can't figure out why.
What I would have picked: Jaguars plus-12.5 over Ravens
Last week: Seahawks 13, Jets (-4.5) 9 (Damn, didn't figure in the Holmgren Factor)

(7 points) DETROIT plus-9.5 over GREEN BAY
--> OK, the last half of these picks don't need a ton of explanation. With this one, here's what you need to know: Detroit is 5-1 ATS on the road, 1-7 at home. As my grandpa used to say, Nuff said.
What I would have picked: Eagles minus-1.5 over Cowboys
Last week: Colts (-6.5) 31, Jaguars 24 (Just squeaked this one by)

(6 points) PITTSBURGH minus-10.5 over CLEVELAND
--> The Brownies have been awful with Ken Dorsey under center. The Steelers have been on a roll, although they are just 2-4 ATS at home this season. After last week, they're a little ticked and will look to pile on the points.
What I would have picked: Dolphins plus-2.5 over Jets
Last week: Ravens (+3.5) 33, Cowboys 24 (Way to close out your historic stadium 'Boys)

(5 points) NEW ENGLAND minus-6.5 over BUFFALO
--> If any team knows how to play must-win games (which to me include playoff games), it's the Patsies. Even a win might not be good enough here, but there's no way Belicheat is ending the season with a whimper.
What I would have picked: Redskins plus-2.5 over 49ers
Last week: 49ers (-4.5) 17, Rams 16 (I hate lambs)

(4 points) MIAMI plus-2.5 over NY JETS
--> All year, the Dolphins have been a surprise. Well, I think it would be a mighty surprise if they finish what they started and win the AFC East here. Also, the Fins have been great ATS on the road, posting a 5-2 mark, while the Jets are a mediocre 3-4 at home.
What I would have picked: Patriots minus-6.5 over Bills
Last week: Dolphins (-3.5) 38, Chiefs 31

(3 points) KANSAS CITY plus-2.5 over CINCINNATI
--> Well the Bungles have started to play a little better? Whoop-de-frickin-do. It was against the Redskins and Browns, while the Chiefs have been respectable against just about everyone the last half the season. P.S. KC is 4-2 ATS on the road, which means they always get a couple of extra points. They'll win this one straight up.
What I would have picked: Rams plus-14.5 over Falcons
Last week: Redskins (+5.5) 10, Eagles 3 (Knew it would be tough for Philly to sustain)

(2 points) OAKLAND plus-13.5 over TAMPA BAY
--> The Raiders, for some reason, have played better on the road. Problem is, you never know what you're gonna get. If they have any intensity on defense, it should be enough to keep this one inside the spread. That's a big if.
What I would have picked: Texans minus-2.5 over Bears
Last week: Falcons 24, Vikings (-3.5) 17 (Not even close on this one)

(1 point) PHILADELPHIA minus-1.5 over DALLAS
--> In all likelihood, if the Eagles win, both teams are out of the playoffs. That would be cool.
What I would have picked: Steelers minus-10.5 over Browns
Last week: Bills (+6.5) 30, Broncos 23 (What else do you expect from mediocre AFC West?)

HOW DA CMMSH FARED IN WEEK 16: 9-7, 70 points
OVERALL AGAINST DA SPREAD: 104-120 (.464), 919 points (61 per week)

TP Sports Pool Standings: JLE 1167, MLC 1009, LR 1008, WWB (won week, 80) 999, Lopes 962, PVW 942, JRap 938, Gene Pool 929, Me 919, KVP 902, DJW 876